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February 21, 2005
Social Security in the Senate
Josh Marshall posted yesterday about Joe Lieberman's willingness consider Bush's proposal to dismantle Social Security. While most are confident that Lieberman will ultimately side with the Democrats when it comes to a vote, Josh writes that Lieberman openly considering the options is dangerous:
As we've said from the start, the key to saving Social Security is Democratic unity. Look at those folks on the Conscience Caucus list. With a very few exceptions they are only there because there's no Democratic cover to make the vote. That's created time for the public to look and see what the president is trying to do. And the more they look, the more they turn against his plan. Throw in a few Democrats supporting phase-out and all but a handful of them will firm up and vote with the White House. Let's say every Dem for phase-out frees up three Republicans.If you haven't been reading Josh's incredible coverage of the Social Security debate, you should. To understand the positions of each congressman, he has created two labels, "the conscience caucus" for Republicans opposing phase-out and "the fainthearted faction" for Democrats supporting it.
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Give him Lieberman and suddenly the President is making headway in the Senate where the key vote will be made. A high-profile Democrat, like Lieberman, for phase-out would probably nail down three or four Senate Republicans for the president. In similar fashion, it would put an equal number of Senate Democrats back in play. One or two of those Dems sign on and you'll see them bring more with them. With a shift like that, suddenly phase-out is back in business and quite possibly even filibuster proof.
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Even if Lieberman eventually decides to keep his hands clean when phase-out comes to a vote, it might not matter since his individual vote probably wouldn't be needed. The damage would already be done.
Senators in the Conscience Caucus: *Lincoln Chafee (RI), *Mike DeWine (OH), *Olympia Snowe (ME), Gordon Smith (OR), Arlen Specter (PA).
Senators in the Fainthearted Faction: Tom Carper (DE), *Kent Conrad (ND), Mary Landrieu (LA), *Joe Lieberman (CT), *Ben Nelson (NE).
(*) indicates a senator up for re-election in 2006.
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Posted by Max at February 21, 2005 09:10 AM