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April 02, 2006
NJ and OH: Both tighten up
Rasmussen polls New Jersey and Ohio, and both are tightening up. Not sure how credible either of these results are as incumbents Bob Menendez (D) in NJ and Mike DeWine (R) in Ohio were both improving in each poll, but I guess that's turned around.
New Jersey
State Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R) - 41%
Sen. Bob Menendez (D) - 39%
Not sure if I buy this one. First of all, Kean's lead is statistically insignificant and within the margin of error. But also, Menendez's visibility on the Dubai ports issue seemed to have him surging toward popularity. But since he is brand-new, this race should be pretty rocky and unpredictable through the end. And nobody ever said it wouldn't be close.
Ohio
Sen. Mike DeWine (R) - 45%
Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) - 42%
If this poll is to be taken seriously at all, this is serious movement in favor of Brown, who was down 9 points in February. I still find it a surprisingly big surge, but Rasmussen easily attributes it to discouraged Hackett voters moving back into the Brown camp. That makes sense, especially coupled with Democrat Ted Strickland's increasing lead in the gubernatorial race. But I still want to be cautious until I see confirmation of these numbers. Yes, DeWine was expected to be in a tight race: his approval ratings are so-so, Ohio is very unhappy with the status quo, and Brown is considered a formidable player in state politics. But after Brown's collapsing post-Hackett, I'm just not sure he's recovered this much this quickly. Let's wait before we move this back into the toss-up column.
Posted by Nathaniel at April 2, 2006 01:05 AM
Comments
I posted about the OH race in the Allen thread. Dewine has basically remained constant in the Rasmussen poll. He polled at 46 last month, 45 this month a statistically insignificant change. But Brown's 5 point surge seemed to be due to OH Dems letting go of the anger about the Hackett situation and rallying behind Brown. I still think a lot of this race will be decided by the Gov. race. I thnk Stricland will beat ether candidate, but the wing nuts will turn out for Blackwell and while there their they'll vote for Dewine who there not that fond of. But if Petro wins, the wingnuts will stay home.
Posted by: Safi at April 2, 2006 01:08 PM
Same with the PA race Santorum is rapidly closing the gap. Zogby Santorum 40% Casey 48% Rasmussen Santorum 38% Casey 48%
Posted by: winger at April 3, 2006 04:42 PM
Casey has polled at 50 and 49 the last 2 months in Rasmussen. 2 points is a statistically insignificant amount.
Posted by: Safi at April 3, 2006 06:55 PM
plus Zogby's WSJ interactive polls are, to put it mildly, complete and utter crap.
Posted by: Johnny Longtorso at April 3, 2006 08:03 PM
I wouldn't call Zogby's polls "complete and utter crap" but I certainly wouldn't take them as gospel. Unfortunately, in many states (including mine) the only other polls we've had lately are the equally questionable Rasmussen surveys.
Posted by: Mike in Maryland at April 4, 2006 01:03 PM
I think Rasmussen has a lot of statistical noise, as they're almost always one-day samples, but at least they're using a more scientific approach than people signing up on the Internet.
Posted by: Johnny Longtorso at April 4, 2006 01:13 PM
As the Bush approval ratings show, you have to say Rasmussen is probably 2-3 pts. better than the GOP is actually doing. The thing is a number Zogby's polls are completely inconsistent with all other polls. The OH race is an example as most pollsters have Dewine a few points up, yet Zogby has Brown up 8. Plus, the AZ Gov. race, most people acknowledge that Janet Napolitano will win big yet Zogby has her up 4 against Barry Golwater's grandson.
Posted by: Safi at April 4, 2006 01:37 PM
Rasmussen's polls are often, but not always, more favorable to the GOP than others. In the MD Senate race, about three months ago they produced a poll showing Steele leading Cardin--the only survey I've seen thus far showing that. Then a month later they turned on their heel and showed a massive 14-point Cardin lead for no apparent reason (I don't think Steele's stem-cell gaffe had that much impact.) Rasmussen then admitted that its earlier survey might well have been wrong.
Zogby just put out an internet poll on this race which showed Cardin leading Steele 48-38, which sounds reasonable. Mfume also led Steele, 45-43.
Posted by: Mike in Maryland at April 4, 2006 11:27 PM
To follow up on some other posters, Rasmussen DOES tend to give Republicans an edge. Following the many polls in the 2004 race, when Kerry was up, Rasmussen tended to have it tied. When it was tied, Rasmussen had Bush up. Ergo, I don't delegate a lot of credit to Rasmussen.
Posted by: Thomas at April 5, 2006 03:20 PM