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April 20, 2006
SUSA polls the Senators again
And Ben Nelson will be jumping in his cowboy boots.
The list, by approval, of Senators running this year:
Ben Nelson (D-Nebraska) - 73% approve, 19% disapprove
Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) - 72% approve, 24% disapprove
Kent Conrad (D-North Dakota) - 67% approve, 27% disapprove
Tom Carper (D-Delaware) - 63% approve, 27% disapprove
Herb Kohl (D-Wisconsin) - 63% approve, 29% disapprove
Trent Lott (R-Mississippi) - 64% approve, 31% disapprove
Robert Byrd (D-West Virginia) - 64% approve, 31% disapprove
Daniel Akaka (D-Hawaii) - 60% approve, 29% disapprove
Jeff Bingaman (D-New Mexico) - 59% approve, 29% disapprove
Hillary Clinton (D-New York) - 63% approve, 33% disapprove
Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) - 60% approve, 33% disapprove
Craig Thomas (R-Wyoming) - 58% approve, 31% disapprove
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) - 57% approve, 31% disapprove
Richard Lugar (R-Indiana) - 57% approve, 33% disapprove
Joe Lieberman (D-Connecticut) - 57% approve, 38% disapprove
Dianne Feinstein (D-California) - 52% approve, 36% disapprove
Ted Kennedy (D-Massachusetts) - 55% approve, 39% disapprove
Bill Nelson (D-Florida) - 48% approve, 33% disapprove
John Ensign (R-Nevada) - 49% approve, 36% disapprove
Lincoln Chafee (R-Rhode Island) - 52% approve, 39% disapprove
George Allen (R-Virginia) - 49% approve, 38% disapprove
Mike DeWine (R-Ohio) - 48% approve, 41% disapprove
Maria Cantwell (D-Washington) - 48% approve, 41% disapprove
Jim Talent (R-Missouri) - 48% approve, 43% disapprove
Jon Kyl (R-Arizona) - 45% approve, 42% disapprove
Bob Menendez (D-New Jersey) - 40% approve, 37% disapprove
Debbie Stabenow (D-Michigan) - 45% approve, 43% disapprove
And at the very bottom:
Conrad Burns (R-Montana) - 39% approve, 52% disapprove
Rick Santorum (R-Pennsylvania) - 39% approve, 53% disapprove
The Pennsylvania crash for Santorum is especially interesting. For much of the campaign it appeared that Santorum's approval was decent, but Bob Casey Jr. was simply so popular that that was his reason for leading the incumbent. Now, as Casey slowly slips, Santorum has become decidedly unpopular. Other big slips include Kyl in Arizona (perhaps due to his vocalness on the immigration issue) and Stabenow in Michigan (probably slipping because of Governor Granholm).
I also think it's intriguing how the "red state Dems" Republicans were trying to target - Ben Nelson, Kent Conrad, Robert Byrd, and even Bill Nelson - are all popular.
Posted by Nathaniel at April 20, 2006 09:02 PM
Comments
This is mostly good news. I think because Stabenow doesn't have a very strong opponent out there, she'll be okay. Talent and DeWine are beatable (as well all know) too, but I find Jon Kyl's numbers to be most interesting. If Jim Pederson would start spending some money (he's spent $2 million alread) and actually start campaigning, I think he could take him down. Newsweek even devoted a page to just the Senate race in Arizona, which I thought was peculiar, but maybe it will end up being a barnburner.
Posted by: WYBlueDog at April 21, 2006 09:30 AM
Only worry is Bob Menendez, who I thought would be much safer than he is...
Posted by: WYBlueDog at April 21, 2006 09:32 AM
I am not worried about Menendez in blue state NJ. He has a lot more experience & money than Kean, should win in November by 8-10%.
Posted by: Andrew at April 21, 2006 10:09 AM
Speaking of Sen. Talent, check out this story...
Posted by: Andrew at April 21, 2006 02:26 PM
Senators facing tough races
Democratic
Ben Nelson-(NE) He is from a Solid Red State- Was elected in 2000 by a 51-49% vote margin. Nelson is favored to win a second term but it will it won't be a landslide victory.
Bill Nelson(FL)- has a best opponent any person can have. Katherine Harris is the most despised person in the State of Florida and in the US. Bill Nelson's re-election numbers in 2006 will be similar to Bob Graham's re-election numbers
Maria Cantwell(WA)- has a wealthy opponent. Washington State is a Democratic State due to Kings County(Seattle)- Cantwell wins by a 55-45 vote margin.
Bob Menendez(NJ) has a strong high name id Republican opponent- Tom Kean Jr. New Jersey is a Democratic State. Menendez wins by a 51-49 similar to the 1990 NJ Senate Race between Bill Bradley and Christine Todd Whitman.
Debbie Stabenow(MI)- lacks a top tier opponents. Stabenow needs to improve her performance in the Detriot Area.- Stabenow wins by a 55-45 percent margin.
Posted by: Neal Patel at April 21, 2006 05:22 PM
Our most endangered incumbents are actually... not endangered at all.
And if Ben Nelson has a 73% approval rating I think some might be surprised in November, when he rakes in 61 or 62% of the vote. I don't care if its Nebraska, it won't be close.
Posted by: WYBlueDog at April 22, 2006 01:15 PM
For whatever reason, there is always a race that ends up surprisingly close/flip when it wasn't on the radar a couple of months before the election i.e. Kentucky 2004, Georgia 2002, Michigan 2000, etc.
I would keep an eye on Arizona, Virgina and Washington.
Posted by: gomer at April 24, 2006 03:14 AM