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May 22, 2006
Rasmussen poll digest
Three more Rasmussen polls:
Washington
Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) - 46%
Former Safeco CEO Mike McGavick (R) - 41%
I really have trouble buying this one. McGavick may do slightly better than the average Republican in Washington State, but a 5-point spread I can't believe. Cantwell is decently popular, Washington is a Democratic-leaning state, and McGavick's campaign has been considered stagnant by the analysts. I still call this "Tilts Democratic", and I expect next month's poll will not be so kind to McGavick.
Montana
State Sen. Jon Tester (D) - 48%
Sen. Conrad Burns (R) - 44%
State Auditor John Morrison (D) - 49%
Sen. Conrad Burns (R) - 45%
Neither Democrat has very good name recognition, so this shows how unpopular Burns must be. It's amazing how effective the Montana Democrats' campaign was. They started running ads against Burns REALLY early, back when he was popular, and it seems to have paid off, as a Likely Republican race has entered Toss-Up territory.
And the best poll of all...
Florida
Sen. Bill Nelson (D) - 60%
Rep. Katherine Harris (R) - 33%
Who would have dreamed a year ago that Nelson could hit 60%? For most of the campaign my theory was that Nelson was not especially popular, but Harris was just so unpopular that she trailed badly. Instead, it's beginning to look like Nelson is popular in his own right, with this poll showing 66% of Floridians viewing him favorably. Now of course, if Harris were to unexpectedly withdraw in September or October, Nelson could be in trouble, but that would be quite tough to pull off, and the replacement nominee (Tommy Franks?) would have very little time to wage a winning campaign. All in all, things are looking very good for Nelson, with his favorability about the same as Jeb's.
My ratings for these three contests: Washington Lean Democratic, Montana Toss-Up, Florida Solid Democratic.
Posted by Nathaniel at May 22, 2006 10:57 AM
Comments
I live in Olympia, Washington.
If Cantwell gets less than 57% in the general election, I will eat Bart Simpson's shorts.
Not only is McGavick a weak candidate but the Republican Party in this state is starting to look like it could hold its convention in a phone booth.
Add to this the intense anti Republican electoral tide and it becomes a November landslide for Cantwell.
Rasmussen always skews his samples 7-9% to the Republican side of the ledger and this poll is just another example.
Posted by: Ken at May 22, 2006 11:50 PM
I don't think comparing the Gov. race to the Senate race is fair. Local politics are always very different from federal politics. The chief reason Dino Rossi was able to be as close as he was, was because the WA legislature is so heavily Democrat.
I'm not saying that WA is a bastion of liberalism. But I'd say the state has a 7 point demcoratic tilt and I don't see how McGavick overcomes that.
Posted by: Safi at May 23, 2006 01:36 AM