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May 15, 2006
Rasmussen polls galore
Sorry, I've been busy. But this should more than make up for it. Rasmussen has gone crazy.
Minnesota
Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar (D) - 45%
Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) - 43%
A statistical tie, as usual. Trivia: can anyone name the last election year in which Minnesota did not have a reasonably competitive Senate race? Answer: 1988.
West Virginia
Sen. Robert Byrd (D) - 57%
Businessman John Raese (R) - 34%
Raese is a self-funder, which makes the Republicans happy because they don't have to waste any money on this race.
Missouri
Sen. Jim Talent (R) - 43%
State Auditor Claire McCaskill (D) - 40%
It seems like every month, the winner in this tossup contest flips. Either way, it will be close, and Missouri's new voter ID law may have an interesting effect (perhaps beneficial to Talent).
Nebraska
Sen. Ben Nelson (D) - 54%
Former Ameritrade COO Pete Ricketts (R) - 35%
If Nebraska weren't so Republican normally, this race would be O-V-E-R. Instead, it remains "likely Democratic".
Ohio
Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) - 44%
Sen. Mike DeWine (R) - 41%
Significantly, this is the first Rasmussen poll to favor Brown, albeit by a typically small margin. Between this, Missouri, Minnesota, Montana, and Rhode Island, this election season is full of unpredictable and tight Senate races. I really think the entire balance of power after November 7 will be decided simply by which party has a better get-out-the-vote.
Now, tomorrow is Primary Day in Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania, and while none of those states are having very heated congressional primaries for either the Senate or the House, Pennsylvania will be of note. The thing to watch is what percentage of the Democratic primary vote Bob Casey Jr. gets. He will win the primary, but if it's less than, say, 70%, he may be in trouble for November. A lot of Democrats may cast protest votes against him tomorrow, and those are Democratic votes he needs for the general election. He needs to hope that the protest vote isn't too big, and that Governor Rendell's turnout operation motivates the liberals in Philadelphia to vote. If not, a divided Democratic electorate could be exactly what Rick Santorum needs to eke out a reelection.
Posted by Nathaniel at May 15, 2006 08:05 PM
Comments
Many people, like myself, changed our registrations to Democrat just to vote against Casey in the primary.
WE ARE TIRED OF HAVING THE RIGHT WING LEADERSHIP OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY SHOVE RIGHT WING CANDIDATES DOWN OUR THROATS!
If Casey wins the primary many many many of us will be pushing third parties and Independents to mount a campaign against both Casey and Santorum in the November election.
If Casey wins in November it will only serve to drive more liberals/progressives and leftists out of the Democratic Party. You right wingers think you don't need to progressives/liberals and activists on the left. You think you can win by immitating the right wing and by poaching conservative voters to replace the liberal left votes you are driving from the Party. Suicidal logic.
Posted by: aahpat at May 15, 2006 11:15 PM
Casey will CRUISE in this primary. Chuck and Sandals are mired in single digits in every poll to date, because the only people who know squat about them are the few political blog junkies. Casey could get as high as 85%.
Posted by: Dan at May 16, 2006 12:04 AM
I'm sick of stupid pie in the sky far left wingers putting Republicans in office. Your the reason Bush is in office.
Their will be a few protest votes, but Casey will get 80% in the primary and will ahve the full support of the Demcoratic party in November. Most Liberals have learned their lesson with 2000, even Kate Michelman the former head of NARAL has endorsed Casey because she knows how bad Santorum is.
Posted by: Safi at May 16, 2006 12:22 AM
One of the reasons why I prefer this board to places like Democratic Underground and Daily Kos is because people like Neal and Dan and Nathaniel and Max understand pragmatism. They understand that we can't get Paul Wellstone's and Russ Feingold's elected in every state. They understand that sometimes we have to bite the bullet and support people like Ben Nelson who we may have strong disagreements with because in a state like Nebraska we can't do a lot better. The fact is someone like Chuck Pennachio will be laughed out of the building running in a state like Pennsylvania.
Posted by: Safi at May 16, 2006 12:26 AM
Let me just give this detailed and thought-provoking analysis of the PA primary: anyone who does not vote for Bob Casey in the Democratic primary is a fucking idiot.
Amen, Safi. I agree 100%. The real soul of the Democratic Party is not the left wing; but rather we centrists, pragmatists, and realists. We're not delusional.
THE PURITY OF THE CAUSE SHOULD NEVER TRUMP SOMETHING FAR MORE IMPORTANT: THE NEED TO WIN ELECTIONS.
Posted by: WYBlueDog at May 16, 2006 01:25 AM
One more thing: I would not consider supporting Ben Nelson "biting the bullet." The man is an elected Democratic senator in bright red Republican Nebraska AND he has a 73% approval rating - the highest out of all 100. That is phenomenal.
Where did some of my fellow Democrats get the notion that we're the "liberal party?" We are not. We're the party of the people; always have been and always will be. We are not the party of a specific ideology, we are the party of the American citizenry.
Posted by: WYBlueDog at May 16, 2006 01:32 AM
Okay, one last thing, an example:
Ben Nelson does not represent "liberalism," "conservatism," or "centrism." Ben Nelson represents Nebraskans. Period.
Posted by: WYBlueDog at May 16, 2006 01:37 AM
The reason I said Ben Nelson would be like biting the bullet is because I disagree with him on a lot of issues. But, I realize that he's a great representative for Nebraska.
Also, I actually consider myself very Liberal. I probably agree with the initial respondant on the vast majority of issues. But unlike him, I understand demographics and that Bob Casey is a good fit for PA.
Posted by: Safi at May 16, 2006 10:03 AM
While Bob Casey is Pro-Life and Anti Stem Cell Research. He is for Strong Environmental and Labor Laws. He is for enviromental protection and livable minimum wages.
Posted by: Neal Patel at May 16, 2006 10:13 AM
The vote that counts... The vote that really counts is the first vote of the session. The one that determines if the Majority Leader of the Senate is Harry Reid or Trent Lott. Find the resident of Pennsylvania *most* likely to make the vote of the Junior senator of Pennsylvania a vote for Harry Reid and nominate *that* person. If out of those who are running that is Pennachio, then fine, he should be voted for. I don't think it is, I think it is Robert Casey.
I'm still debating how Connecticut's current situation plays in regard to this, but this is Pennsylvania and Santorum needs to go!
Posted by: Randolph Finder at May 16, 2006 11:45 AM
Don't misunderstand me, I have no problem with liberals who understand how American politics works. But these Democrats who are more enthusiastic about Ned Lamont in Connecticut, than Bob Casey, Claire McCaskill, Morrison/Tester, Sherrod Brown, or Sheldon Whitehouse drive me bananas.
Posted by: WYBlueDog at May 16, 2006 01:22 PM
The only person that you will agree with on every single issue is you. People want to sulk or mount third party challenges that drains votes away - fine but you will help elect more Republicans. Casey has a GREAT chance to remove Santorum from office in November. I don't really have a problem with a spirted primary unless it becomes nasty and drains money but once the primaries are over, the losers should suck it up and unite behind the candidate. Casey will win the primary and he has is favored to win in November.
Posted by: gomer at May 16, 2006 07:33 PM
I realized that I don't post enough on this site...
So anyways, here is my projection for pickups:
GOP--None.
Dem--PA, MT, OH.
It looks like we could win MO, but let's look a little beyond the polls and recognize that Talent is more personally powerful & influential than McCaskill. I think it'll be close in MO, and I wish I could honestly say I think we could win. But I don't.
RI and TN will be close, and I think that NV will be closer than people realize (whithin 10%). But I doubt we'll take them.
Posted by: Limerick at May 16, 2006 10:19 PM
I agree, Gomer and BlueDog. I'm further to the left than BlueDog on social issues (abortion, gay rights,) but you won't hear me cheering on Ned Lamont, and I am very enthusiastic about some of the more moderate/conservative members of the party who have a shot at winning (such as Casey, McCaskill, and Morrison or Tester.) The Connecticut primary is a waste of time and money, especially when the Democratic party has so many real challenges around the country. Joe Lieberman is not as bad as the extreme left makes him out to be-- true, his hawkishness on the war and his approval of censorship are not so great, in my opinion-- but his voting record is, by and large, in step with the mainstream of the Democratic party on most issues. The fact that the left wingnuts are trying to bring him down, only serves to drain the party's resources and to solidify the Republicans' claim that the Dems are a bunch of ideological lunatics.
Posted by: The Caped Composer at May 17, 2006 09:32 AM
My view on the CT situation is that I'd probably vote for Lamont simply because I agree with him on more issues than Lieberman and because the GOP doesn't have more than token opposition Lamont would in all likelihood still keep this seat on our side. Having said that, I wouldn't donate any money to him or work for him. If I lived in CT I'd give my time and money to Diane Farrell and Joe Courtney as those two will be involved in extremely competitive house races.
Posted by: Safi at May 17, 2006 10:55 AM
I agree 100% with the Caped Composer's statement.
The resource that is spent helping LaMont- who is going to disappear in obscurity once he loses to Joe Lieberman is better of being spent helping Claire McCaskill,Sherrod Brown,Sheldon Whitehouse,and Harold Ford Jr.
Bob Casey Jr and John Morrison/Tester are going to win the US Senate Race in PA and MT. due to Santorum's and Burn's obvious vulnerabilities.
Posted by: Neal Patel at May 17, 2006 11:36 AM
considering about half of Lamont's money so far has come from his personal fortune, I don't think there's a big waste of resources there.
Posted by: Johnny Longtorso at May 17, 2006 06:47 PM
