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June 15, 2006

Poll digest

Polls, get your polls here!

New Jersey - Quinnipiac

Sen. Bob Menendez (D) - 43%
State Sen. Tom Kean, Jr. (R) - 36%

A 7-point lead? Maybe not, but Jersey voters do tend to follow a very predictable and clear pattern. They hate their politicians, so for most of the campaign the polls are close. Then near the end the undecideds nearly all break for the Democrat, and what was touted as a toss-up race ends up easily going to the Democrats. Kean's early advantage has evaporated, and most polls show a slight Menendez lead now. I expect it may tighten up around August or September, but so far the ingredients aren't there for a Kean victory; the state is just too blue and the incumbent hasn't been around long enough to piss people off. Perhaps if Kean keeps it close (say, 52-48) he will run again in 2008 (against Frank Lautenberg, or in an open seat if Lautenberg retires).

Michigan - EPIC/MRA

Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) - 48%
Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard (R) - 34%

Stabenow is under the safe mark now due to a bad economy in Michigan and a politically weak governor. This race has been strangely quiet, and I'm guessing most of the loss has been with Republican-leaning Independents rather than more Democratic-friendly voters, who would have no reason to ditch Stabenow. So far she is still favored, but this could become a last-minute barn-burner like Georgia in 2002 or Kentucky in 2004.

Arizona - Rasmussen

Sen. Jon Kyl (R) - 52%
Former State Party Chairman Jim Pederson (D) - 35%

Nothing going on here. Governor Napolitano may help Pederson by a couple of points, perhaps tightening it up by October, but by then it will be too late. Kyl's got McCain, and that's all he needs.

Rhode Island - Rasmussen

Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) - 44%
Former State Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse (D) - 42%

Close as always. Chafee remains popular, especially among moderates, Independents, and Democrats, but his favorability among Republicans is 55% which, while good, means that a significant portion of them will not vote for him in the September 12 primary, and a significant portion of those may be unmotivated to vote in November. Meaning they stay home. Meaning Whitehouse wins. It could happen.

And finally, a major grain-of-salter:

Ohio - SurveyUSA

Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) - 48%
Sen. Mike DeWine (R) - 39%

There is very little evidence to back up this poll as anywhere near accurate. Only a handful of polls have shown Brown with any lead, and none have shown him 9 points up. 5 at most. Most polls still show a slight DeWine advantage, and given how aggressively DeWine has been campaigning there is no reason why Brown would be doing so well. I really don't buy this one. The average poll has shown it somewhere along the lines of DeWine 44, Brown 42, or something like that.

Posted by Nathaniel at June 15, 2006 01:09 PM

Comments

Posted by: The Caped Composer at July 6, 2006 02:31 PM