November 09, 2006
VICTORY
With both houses of Congress under Democratic leadership, we've won the first crucial step in taking our country back. Congratulations to Senators Jon Tester, Claire McCaskill, Jim Webb, Ben Cardin, Sherrod Brown, Bob Casey, and Sheldon Whitehouse! Congratulations also to all of our successful candidates in the House, our new Democratic governors, and our new state legislators.
I stopped updating this site at the end of September because I was too busy with school work this semester and because the larger liberal blogs were covering all of the major Senate races in detail. When I began this site in January, 2005, the major liberal blogs were barely covering the midterm elections. As the elections approached, they began to cover these races and OurSenate became less necessary. Within the next few months, as the speculation about the 2008 Senate races begins, I will go back to updating this site regularly. I am excited to start discussing how we will expand our majority in 2008, as well as what we will do with our majority in the next two years.
For now, enjoy our new majorities in the House and Senate. To everyone who worked or volunteered on a campaign, donated money, and voted for Democrats, thank you for helping to put Democrats in the majority.
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I've turned off the comments feature for now, due to the incredible amount of comment spam this site generates. Once the regular updates start again I'll turn comments back on. For now, if you have any questions, comments, or new tips about Senate races, e-mail me.
Posted by Max at 02:09 PM
September 20, 2006
Headlines
CT: Rasmussen's newest poll shows Lieberman leading Lamont by just 2 points, 45% to 43%. Schlesinger gets 5%. Lamont has the momentum to win this.
AZ: A new SUSA poll shows Kyl leading Pederson 48% to 43%. If this poll is accurate (we'll need another poll or two to confirm), this race might be competitive. So far, its been a disappointment, but it looks like Pederson is moving in the right direction.
HI: A new poll shows Akaka defeating challenger Case 51% to 38%. The primary is next Tuesday.
RI: Chafee might have won his primary, but he's going to lose the general. Rasmussen has Whitehouse beating Chafee 51% to 43% (+/- 4.5%)
MN: Klobuchar leads Kennedy 56% to 32% in the latest Minnesota Poll. I doubt that Klobuchar really holds such a big lead, but I don't doubt that she has a solid lead, and will win this race.
OH: Rasmussen has Brown defeating DeWine, 47% to 41%. This is Brown's biggest lead in a Rasmussen poll. With Strickland's considerable lead over Blackwell in the Governor's race, it seems like Ohio is going blue this year.
MT: Conrad Burns gets more corrupt every day. From the Billings Gazette:
Sen. Conrad Burns flew on a private plane chartered by Vonage Holdings Corp., just days after he pushed legislation that the company has advocated for more than a year.Burns accompanied Vonage lobbyist Frank Cavaliere on the company's chartered plane to and from the "13th Annual Burns Classic Golf Weekend" in Bigfork on Saturday. Cavaliere and a Burns spokesman both confirmed the plane trip.
PA: The GOP sponsored Green party candidate is still fighting to get on the ballot. The state supreme court is giving him a final appeal to get on the ballot. From the Post-Gazette:
Mr. Romanelli is challenging a Commonwealth Court ruling that upheld an unusually high 67,000-signature threshold for independent candidates seeking a spot on the ballot.State law specifies that an independent's nominating petitions must include a signature total equal to 2 percent of the votes collected by the highest vote-getter in the previous statewide election. Election officials, in a decision endorsed by Commonwealth Court, said that means Bob Casey's 2004 election landslide for treasurer is the base for the calculation.
Mr. Romanelli's legal team is arguing that a 2005 judicial retention election, with a much lower turnout, should have been used, resulting in a much lower signature requirement.
The case could be crucial to the Senate election. Lawyers for the Democratic Party are trying to keep Mr. Romanelli off the ballot for fear the Green candidate, who favors abortion rights and an immediate withdrawal of American troops from Iraq, might siphon liberal votes from Mr. Casey. The same analysis led GOP donors, reportedly with the active encouragement of the Santorum campaign, to fund the signature drive for Mr. Romanelli's nominating petitions.
Posted by Max at 01:33 AM | Comments (5)
July 30, 2006
Headlines
VA: Allen holds 11% lead.
Side-by-side Zogby telephone and interactive polls show nearly identical margins in U.S. Senate raceTwo simultaneous polls of likely voters in Virginia, one conducted over the telephone and the other using Zogby’s innovative interactive survey process, showed very similar double–digit leads for incumbent Republican George Allen over Democratic challenger James Webb in the race for U.S. Senate.
MN: Klobuchar leads by 5% in new SUSA poll.
Klobuchar (D): 47%
Kennedy (R): 42%
Fitzgerald (I): 8%
Undecided: 4%MoE: +/- 4%
TN: Corker holds huge lead in Republican primary.
Corker: 49%
Bryant: 29%
Hilleary: 15%
Harrison: 3%
Undecided: 4%MoE: 4.2%
MI: Vicious GOP primary increases Stabenow's odds. (From the Detroit News)
While Democratic U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow stockpiles $7 million for her re-election bid, two Oakland County Republicans are battling for the right to challenge her in November.It's a scenario that some analysts say improves Stabenow's chances of holding on to her seat in Congress and should embarrass the GOP: The first-term incumbent hoarding her cash while two would-be opponents pour their resources into the Aug. 8 primary.
...
"They're like two drones fighting for the right to be stung to death by Queen Bee Stabenow," saidBill Ballenger, publisher of the newsletter Inside Michigan Politics, and himself a former GOP office-holder.
Posted by Max at 10:00 PM | Comments (10)
July 18, 2006
Headlines
Florida: Katherine Harris is a mess.
Arizona: SUSA's poll of the Senate race shows Kyl defeating Pederson 52% to 40%.
Minnesota: A new poll from the Minneapolis Star Tribune shows Klobuchar defeating Kennedy by a stunning 50% to 31%. The Hill has an interesting article about how the Minnesota GOP is questioning this poll, as they should.
Tennessee: "Bryant supporter in chicken suit run downs Corker supporter" Yes, this is real.
Wisconsin: Robert Lorge, the Republican candidate challenging Senator Kohl, is accused in a lawsuit of molesting a female relative twenty years ago. Link
Montana: From the Hotline Blog:
A Lake Research poll taken 6/20-6/26 for state Senate Pres. Jon Tester (D) shows him in a statistical tie with Sen. Conrad Burns (R), leading him 43%-42%, with 3% for the Libertarian and 12% undecided. That's a pretty good place for a Senate challenger to be only 4 months out from election day, though GOPers might note that Tester has actually held slightly larger leads in previous public polls. The Lake poll has quite a large sample size (1200 LVs, +/-2.8% MoE) and shows Burns with a fav/unfav of 46%/50% compared to Tester's 48%/18%.
Maryland: From the Baltimore Sun:
With the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate less than two months away, Rep. Benjamin L. Cardin and former congressman and NAACP President Kweisi Mfume remain locked in a virtual tie, according to a new Sun poll.If the primary were held today, the survey finds, each candidate would get about three out of 10 votes.
More than a third of the state's Democrats haven't decided on a candidate to face probable Republican nominee Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele in the general election for the rare open seat - a huge bloc of voters that remains unmoved from a Sun survey conducted eight months ago.
New Jersey: Quinnipiac University has a new poll showing Kean defeating Menendez 40% to 38%. This contrasts with the recent Strategic Vision (R) poll which found Menendez leading by 6 points.
Posted by Max at 11:10 PM
June 15, 2006
Poll digest
Polls, get your polls here!
New Jersey - Quinnipiac
Sen. Bob Menendez (D) - 43%
State Sen. Tom Kean, Jr. (R) - 36%
A 7-point lead? Maybe not, but Jersey voters do tend to follow a very predictable and clear pattern. They hate their politicians, so for most of the campaign the polls are close. Then near the end the undecideds nearly all break for the Democrat, and what was touted as a toss-up race ends up easily going to the Democrats. Kean's early advantage has evaporated, and most polls show a slight Menendez lead now. I expect it may tighten up around August or September, but so far the ingredients aren't there for a Kean victory; the state is just too blue and the incumbent hasn't been around long enough to piss people off. Perhaps if Kean keeps it close (say, 52-48) he will run again in 2008 (against Frank Lautenberg, or in an open seat if Lautenberg retires).
Michigan - EPIC/MRA
Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) - 48%
Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard (R) - 34%
Stabenow is under the safe mark now due to a bad economy in Michigan and a politically weak governor. This race has been strangely quiet, and I'm guessing most of the loss has been with Republican-leaning Independents rather than more Democratic-friendly voters, who would have no reason to ditch Stabenow. So far she is still favored, but this could become a last-minute barn-burner like Georgia in 2002 or Kentucky in 2004.
Arizona - Rasmussen
Sen. Jon Kyl (R) - 52%
Former State Party Chairman Jim Pederson (D) - 35%
Nothing going on here. Governor Napolitano may help Pederson by a couple of points, perhaps tightening it up by October, but by then it will be too late. Kyl's got McCain, and that's all he needs.
Rhode Island - Rasmussen
Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) - 44%
Former State Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse (D) - 42%
Close as always. Chafee remains popular, especially among moderates, Independents, and Democrats, but his favorability among Republicans is 55% which, while good, means that a significant portion of them will not vote for him in the September 12 primary, and a significant portion of those may be unmotivated to vote in November. Meaning they stay home. Meaning Whitehouse wins. It could happen.
And finally, a major grain-of-salter:
Ohio - SurveyUSA
Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) - 48%
Sen. Mike DeWine (R) - 39%
There is very little evidence to back up this poll as anywhere near accurate. Only a handful of polls have shown Brown with any lead, and none have shown him 9 points up. 5 at most. Most polls still show a slight DeWine advantage, and given how aggressively DeWine has been campaigning there is no reason why Brown would be doing so well. I really don't buy this one. The average poll has shown it somewhere along the lines of DeWine 44, Brown 42, or something like that.
Posted by Nathaniel at 01:09 PM | Comments (1)
May 24, 2006
Headlines
Ok, I'm back from a brutal week of exams, and a weekend of laziness. I'll do my best to get back to writing frequent updates.
From The Hill:
Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez and his GOP challenger, Tom Kean Jr., are in a dead heat, with nearly one-third of the New Jersey electorate undecided, according to a poll released last week by Republican polling firm Strategic Vision LLC.The poll found each candidate pulling 35 percent support of those asked.
Slightly more voters (32 percent) have a favorable view of Menendez, who was appointed to now-Gov. Jon Corzine’s seat in January, than they have of Kean (25 percent), but more than half of voters hadn’t formed an opinion about whether they viewed either candidate favorably or unfavorably at the time the poll was taken.
The Hill also has an article about Bob Keenan, Conrad Burns' primary challenger.
NYT: Lieberman claims he's ready for his primary challenge. Also, Lieberman is attacking Lamont for spending $1 million of his own money on the campaign. (Hartford Courant)
Posted by Max at 12:19 AM
May 22, 2006
Rasmussen poll digest
Three more Rasmussen polls:
Washington
Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) - 46%
Former Safeco CEO Mike McGavick (R) - 41%
I really have trouble buying this one. McGavick may do slightly better than the average Republican in Washington State, but a 5-point spread I can't believe. Cantwell is decently popular, Washington is a Democratic-leaning state, and McGavick's campaign has been considered stagnant by the analysts. I still call this "Tilts Democratic", and I expect next month's poll will not be so kind to McGavick.
Montana
State Sen. Jon Tester (D) - 48%
Sen. Conrad Burns (R) - 44%
State Auditor John Morrison (D) - 49%
Sen. Conrad Burns (R) - 45%
Neither Democrat has very good name recognition, so this shows how unpopular Burns must be. It's amazing how effective the Montana Democrats' campaign was. They started running ads against Burns REALLY early, back when he was popular, and it seems to have paid off, as a Likely Republican race has entered Toss-Up territory.
And the best poll of all...
Florida
Sen. Bill Nelson (D) - 60%
Rep. Katherine Harris (R) - 33%
Who would have dreamed a year ago that Nelson could hit 60%? For most of the campaign my theory was that Nelson was not especially popular, but Harris was just so unpopular that she trailed badly. Instead, it's beginning to look like Nelson is popular in his own right, with this poll showing 66% of Floridians viewing him favorably. Now of course, if Harris were to unexpectedly withdraw in September or October, Nelson could be in trouble, but that would be quite tough to pull off, and the replacement nominee (Tommy Franks?) would have very little time to wage a winning campaign. All in all, things are looking very good for Nelson, with his favorability about the same as Jeb's.
My ratings for these three contests: Washington Lean Democratic, Montana Toss-Up, Florida Solid Democratic.
Posted by Nathaniel at 10:57 AM | Comments (2)
May 15, 2006
Rasmussen polls galore
Sorry, I've been busy. But this should more than make up for it. Rasmussen has gone crazy.
Minnesota
Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar (D) - 45%
Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) - 43%
A statistical tie, as usual. Trivia: can anyone name the last election year in which Minnesota did not have a reasonably competitive Senate race? Answer: 1988.
West Virginia
Sen. Robert Byrd (D) - 57%
Businessman John Raese (R) - 34%
Raese is a self-funder, which makes the Republicans happy because they don't have to waste any money on this race.
Missouri
Sen. Jim Talent (R) - 43%
State Auditor Claire McCaskill (D) - 40%
It seems like every month, the winner in this tossup contest flips. Either way, it will be close, and Missouri's new voter ID law may have an interesting effect (perhaps beneficial to Talent).
Nebraska
Sen. Ben Nelson (D) - 54%
Former Ameritrade COO Pete Ricketts (R) - 35%
If Nebraska weren't so Republican normally, this race would be O-V-E-R. Instead, it remains "likely Democratic".
Ohio
Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) - 44%
Sen. Mike DeWine (R) - 41%
Significantly, this is the first Rasmussen poll to favor Brown, albeit by a typically small margin. Between this, Missouri, Minnesota, Montana, and Rhode Island, this election season is full of unpredictable and tight Senate races. I really think the entire balance of power after November 7 will be decided simply by which party has a better get-out-the-vote.
Now, tomorrow is Primary Day in Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania, and while none of those states are having very heated congressional primaries for either the Senate or the House, Pennsylvania will be of note. The thing to watch is what percentage of the Democratic primary vote Bob Casey Jr. gets. He will win the primary, but if it's less than, say, 70%, he may be in trouble for November. A lot of Democrats may cast protest votes against him tomorrow, and those are Democratic votes he needs for the general election. He needs to hope that the protest vote isn't too big, and that Governor Rendell's turnout operation motivates the liberals in Philadelphia to vote. If not, a divided Democratic electorate could be exactly what Rick Santorum needs to eke out a reelection.
Posted by Nathaniel at 08:05 PM | Comments (17)
May 04, 2006
Senate Candidate Websites
The Hill's new The Hill Blog has a great new resource: a comprehensive list of every Senator's campaign websites and every Senate candidate's websites.
List of current Senators' Websites.
List of Senate Challengers' Websites.
Posted by Max at 01:42 AM
Chuck Todd's Senate Rankings
Chuck Todd has updated his Senate rankings, and for the most part, I agree with him. His top 5:
Pennsylvania, Missouri, Montana, Rhode Island, and Minnesota.
Also, he suggests that we may have a better chance at taking back the Senate than the House:
Put another way, we can't figure out how the House would flip unless the Senate does, too, but we can picture the Senate flipping before the House. Here's why:As longtime fans of this column know, this is the fifth cycle we've ranked Senate races based on their potential to switch control from one party to the other. We started this in the '98 cycle, and with the help of amazing editors, have created a rankings monster.
This week we went back to the last four columns we wrote during each election cycle to see how the final 11 or 12 "in play" Senate seats fell. What's interesting about all four cycles is that one party did distinctly better than the other each time.
...
The bottom line is that Senate races are very susceptible to national breezes. A wind was blowing in one party's direction in all four of the previous election cycles, and it made a big difference in determining which party won the lion's share of the competitive Senate seats. Assuming the pattern we've picked up on holds, no more than 12 seats will be in play going into the final weekend of the cycle. And the odds are the top-ranked race in our final rankings will be considered a no-brainer by that time.For the sake of this argument, Democrats can consider one seat theirs before any votes are cast. So now the party needs to net five seats out of the races we've ranked 2 through 13 in order to gain control. There are six Republican seats in that group, and if Democrats have a good election night (i.e., just a breeze), it's likely they'll win nine of these 12 races. And that would net them, at the worst, another three seats for a four-seat gain. For those wondering, that's the number many handicappers are tossing around right now when pressed about an "all things being equal" election scenario.
This is an incredibly interesting analysis, so go read the rest. His reasoning certainly makes me more hopeful for a Senate takeover that I was before.
Posted by Max at 01:35 AM | Comments (4)
April 27, 2006
FL and WA: Strategic Vision polls
Strategic Vision, a GOP polling firm, has polled both Florida and Washington:
Florida
Florida of course looks great.
Sen. Bill Nelson (D) - 56%
Rep. Katherine Harris (R) - 24%
Nelson's favorability-unfavorability ratio is 46-13, quite impressive, while Harris' is 25-54! Nelson's approval is 48%, to 38% disapproval. Frighteningly though, if retired General Tommy Franks makes a late entry, he will be tied with Nelson at 45%!
Washington
Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) - 48%
Former Safeco CEO Mike McGavick (R) - 40%
This is a second-tier race. It could become competitive, but at this point Cantwell is favored in every poll. Her approval rating is decent, 48% to 34% disapproval, and Washington just is not the kind of state Republicans win, especially for federal office. McGavick would need to eat into Cantwell's margin in Puget Sound and the Seattle area, and have low turnout in Kings County (where Seattle is located) versus exceptionally big turnout in suburban and rural areas.
In the end, I expect Cantwell's margin to be around 54-46, or 55-45.
Posted by Nathaniel at 09:31 AM | Comments (4)
April 20, 2006
SUSA polls the Senators again
And Ben Nelson will be jumping in his cowboy boots.
The list, by approval, of Senators running this year:
Ben Nelson (D-Nebraska) - 73% approve, 19% disapprove
Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) - 72% approve, 24% disapprove
Kent Conrad (D-North Dakota) - 67% approve, 27% disapprove
Tom Carper (D-Delaware) - 63% approve, 27% disapprove
Herb Kohl (D-Wisconsin) - 63% approve, 29% disapprove
Trent Lott (R-Mississippi) - 64% approve, 31% disapprove
Robert Byrd (D-West Virginia) - 64% approve, 31% disapprove
Daniel Akaka (D-Hawaii) - 60% approve, 29% disapprove
Jeff Bingaman (D-New Mexico) - 59% approve, 29% disapprove
Hillary Clinton (D-New York) - 63% approve, 33% disapprove
Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) - 60% approve, 33% disapprove
Craig Thomas (R-Wyoming) - 58% approve, 31% disapprove
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) - 57% approve, 31% disapprove
Richard Lugar (R-Indiana) - 57% approve, 33% disapprove
Joe Lieberman (D-Connecticut) - 57% approve, 38% disapprove
Dianne Feinstein (D-California) - 52% approve, 36% disapprove
Ted Kennedy (D-Massachusetts) - 55% approve, 39% disapprove
Bill Nelson (D-Florida) - 48% approve, 33% disapprove
John Ensign (R-Nevada) - 49% approve, 36% disapprove
Lincoln Chafee (R-Rhode Island) - 52% approve, 39% disapprove
George Allen (R-Virginia) - 49% approve, 38% disapprove
Mike DeWine (R-Ohio) - 48% approve, 41% disapprove
Maria Cantwell (D-Washington) - 48% approve, 41% disapprove
Jim Talent (R-Missouri) - 48% approve, 43% disapprove
Jon Kyl (R-Arizona) - 45% approve, 42% disapprove
Bob Menendez (D-New Jersey) - 40% approve, 37% disapprove
Debbie Stabenow (D-Michigan) - 45% approve, 43% disapprove
And at the very bottom:
Conrad Burns (R-Montana) - 39% approve, 52% disapprove
Rick Santorum (R-Pennsylvania) - 39% approve, 53% disapprove
The Pennsylvania crash for Santorum is especially interesting. For much of the campaign it appeared that Santorum's approval was decent, but Bob Casey Jr. was simply so popular that that was his reason for leading the incumbent. Now, as Casey slowly slips, Santorum has become decidedly unpopular. Other big slips include Kyl in Arizona (perhaps due to his vocalness on the immigration issue) and Stabenow in Michigan (probably slipping because of Governor Granholm).
I also think it's intriguing how the "red state Dems" Republicans were trying to target - Ben Nelson, Kent Conrad, Robert Byrd, and even Bill Nelson - are all popular.
Posted by Nathaniel at 09:02 PM | Comments (7)
April 02, 2006
NJ and OH: Both tighten up
Rasmussen polls New Jersey and Ohio, and both are tightening up. Not sure how credible either of these results are as incumbents Bob Menendez (D) in NJ and Mike DeWine (R) in Ohio were both improving in each poll, but I guess that's turned around.
New Jersey
State Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R) - 41%
Sen. Bob Menendez (D) - 39%
Not sure if I buy this one. First of all, Kean's lead is statistically insignificant and within the margin of error. But also, Menendez's visibility on the Dubai ports issue seemed to have him surging toward popularity. But since he is brand-new, this race should be pretty rocky and unpredictable through the end. And nobody ever said it wouldn't be close.
Ohio
Sen. Mike DeWine (R) - 45%
Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) - 42%
If this poll is to be taken seriously at all, this is serious movement in favor of Brown, who was down 9 points in February. I still find it a surprisingly big surge, but Rasmussen easily attributes it to discouraged Hackett voters moving back into the Brown camp. That makes sense, especially coupled with Democrat Ted Strickland's increasing lead in the gubernatorial race. But I still want to be cautious until I see confirmation of these numbers. Yes, DeWine was expected to be in a tight race: his approval ratings are so-so, Ohio is very unhappy with the status quo, and Brown is considered a formidable player in state politics. But after Brown's collapsing post-Hackett, I'm just not sure he's recovered this much this quickly. Let's wait before we move this back into the toss-up column.
Posted by Nathaniel at 01:05 AM | Comments (9)
March 30, 2006
Headlines
MT: Bush fundraisers for Burns:
President Bush on Monday gave Montana Sen. Conrad Burns a boost, drawing Republicans to a fundraiser where supporters paid $10,000 to have their photo taken with the president.But before he endorsed Burns' re-election bid, Bush took a quick jab at the plain-spoken Republican.
"I kind of like being on the same platform as Conrad Burns because he makes me sound like Shakespeare," said Bush at the Madison Hotel fundraiser.
FL: Nelson Crushing Harris 51% to 35%.
CT: Lamont has two grassroots strategies to get on the ballot:
Edward "Ned" Lamont, the Greenwich cable executive challenging three-term U.S. Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman, says he is pursuing a two-pronged "grassroots" strategy to secure a place on the Democratic primary ballot.In a Journal Inquirer interview, Lamont said Friday that he not only would seek the support of 15 percent of the delegates at his party's state convention in May, but also attempt to petition his way onto the primary ballot by gathering the signatures of least 15,000 Democrats.
Posted by Max at 12:42 AM
March 24, 2006
Headlines
VA: Jonathan Singer at MyDD interviewed James Webb.
Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman blasted state Treasurer Robert P. Casey Jr. on Wednesday, calling the probable challenger to U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum a man with high ambition and few ideas.Mehlman told about 150 Westmoreland County Republicans at the Greensburg Country Club that Casey, a Democrat, has kept quiet on the issues out of fear that his positions could cost him in his bid to unseat Santorum in November's general election.
"Bob Casey wants Rick Santorum's job. It will be his fifth statewide election in 10 years. Bob Casey doesn't seem to know why he wants to be a U.S. senator," Mehlman said.
MT: 10 candidates in the Montana Senate race:
When the dust had settled at 5 p.m. Thursday, five Democrats, four Republicans and one Libertarian had entered the race. Burns is trying to win a fourth six-year term in the Senate.Democratic Party spokesman Matt McKenna said the sheer number of Senate candidates signifies Burns’ political vulnerability because of his ties with disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff.
“This group represents a wide cross-section of Montanans that has one thing in common: Conrad Burns is out of touch and needs to go,” McKenna said.
FL: Harris loses another key staffer.
Posted by Max at 08:17 PM
March 23, 2006
SUSA does the Senators
Conrad Burns is in deep deep...uh, mud.
Florida - BILL NELSON (D) 49% approve, 30% disapprove
Michigan - DEBBIE STABENOW (D) 48% approve, 40% disapprove
Missouri - JIM TALENT (R) 51% approve, 38% disapprove
Montana - CONRAD BURNS (R) 38% approve, 52% disapprove
New Jersey - BOB MENENDEZ (D) 46% approve, 30% disapprove
Ohio - MIKE DEWINE (R) 46% approve, 39% disapprove
Pennsylvania - RICK SANTORUM (R) 43% approve, 48% disapprove
Rhode Island - LINCOLN CHAFEE (R) 52% approve, 42% disapprove
Washington - MARIA CANTWELL (D) 51% approve, 38% disapprove
Interesting that some Senators are under-performing their approval in the polls and others are over-performing. For example, Debbie Stabenow is only mildly popular but has a big lead in the polls and is polling at or over 50%. Jim Talent on the other hand has decent approval but is locked in a toss-up race. Maria Cantwell has an identical approval rating to Talent yet has a good lead. Chafee remains well-liked yet is in the battle of his life. Rick Santorum is still relatively equal between approvers and disapprovers but is way behind in the polls.
Bob Menendez's approval seems pretty decent for a new guy in a close race. His high profile on the ports deal must have helped a lot.
As for Conrad Burns, well...ouch?
Posted by Nathaniel at 06:09 PM | Comments (3)
March 22, 2006
Late Night Update
I'm back from vacation. Here's a quick update of what's happened in the last week.
Katherine Harris won't drop out of the Florida Senate race. Instead, she's dumping millions of her own money into the race. Why? Because God wants her to:
Harris, who told a national television audience Wednesday that she would be spending $10 million to win Florida's U.S. Senate race, said she never would have entered politics if she did not believe that God wanted her to make public service part of her life.
New Jersey remains a close race, but Menendez leads Kean by 4% in the latest poll. In other news, Cheney headlined a Kean fundraiser on Monday, but Kean didn't arrive until after Cheney had left, in order to avoid getting his picture taken with the unpopular Cheney. From the NYT:
So what should have been a routine political story about a successful fund-raiser, netting close to $400,000, became one in which Mr. Kean was asked repeatedly whether he had deliberately avoided being photographed with the vice president, who is deeply unpopular in New Jersey.Mr. Kean's spokeswoman, Jill Hazelbaker, said: "There was no concerted effort. It was two ships passing in the night."
...
Mr. Cheney, meanwhile, said that Mr. Kean had one of the most trusted names in politics, alluding to his father, former Gov. Thomas H. Kean. He did not, however, mention the fact that the elder Mr. Kean — who was out of the country, Ms. Hazelbaker said — had also been critical of the Bush administration, in his capacity as the former chairman of the 9/11 Commission.But Mr. Cheney did not appear to feel slighted by the absence of the man for whom he was raising money.
"I'm sorry he's not here right now," Mr. Cheney said, referring to the younger Mr. Kean. "But I do some of my best work without a candidate."
More here. And here.
Newsweek notes the Republican's desperation in attacking Harold Ford eight months before the election.
Burns is in serious trouble in Montana. There's talk of both a primary challenge or of Burns dropping out before Thursday's filing deadline. Let's hope he stays, because if he drops out and is replaced by Congressman Denny Rehberg or former Governor Mark Racicot, both Dems would trail badly. Rasmussen's latest poll shows Tester defeating Burns 46-43% and Morrison defeating Burns 48-43. However, Rehberg defeats Tester 56-37%, and Morrison 53-41%. Racicot also easily defeats both Dems, by about 20%.
Cantwell lead McGavick 49% to 36 % in Washington. (Rasmussen)
McCaskill leads Talent 43% to 40% in Missouri. (Rasmussen)
Ford is trailing all of the Republicans in the race by 4-9%. (Rasmussen)
Finally, from my favorite open seat race, Vermont:
In the race for U.S. Senate, survey respondents were asked if they would favor Tarrant over Sanders. Twenty-six percent answered yes, 62 percent said no and 12 percent were not sure.
Note: The article explains that this is an unscientific survey conducted by a Vermont state Senator. However, even if the margin of error is 30%, we're still going to win this race in a landslide.
Posted by Max at 01:40 AM | Comments (2)
March 15, 2006
SUSA Bush approval numbers
If President Bush's approval is any indication of the way this election is shaping up, then O-U-C-H. SurveyUSA's new numbers show a nationwide disapproval of 60%, with only 36% approval, fairly in line with other recent polls. Here are the states with interesting Senate races (disapproval first, approval after):
New Jersey (Menendez vs. Kean) - 70-26
Rhode Island (Chafee vs. Whitehouse or Brown) - 70-28
Maryland (Cardin or Mfume vs. Steele) - 68-29
Michigan (Stabenow vs. Bouchard) - 68-30
Pennsylvania (Santorum vs. Casey) - 64-34
Ohio (DeWine vs. Brown) - 64-34
Washington (Cantwell vs. McGavick) - 61-36
Missouri (Talent vs. McCaskill) - 60-36
Florida (Nelson vs. Harris) - 59-37
Tennessee (Bryant, Corker, or Hilleary vs. Ford) - 58-39
Minnesota (Klobuchar vs. Kennedy) - 58-39
Montana (Burns vs. Morrison or Tester) - 49-44
Numbers like this could make the difference in blue states with close races such as Maryland, Rhode Island, and New Jersey. And they certainly can't help incumbents like Santorum, DeWine, or Talent. The only state with a close or interesting Senate race where Bush is running near-even is Montana; interestingly, even in red states like North Dakota and West Virginia where Dem incumbents are seeking reelection, Bush is in negative territory. The only Dem-Senator state this year where Bush is in positive territory is Nebraska, where his approval is 49-48, hardly convincing. And of course, Ben Nelson will be reelected easily anyway.
Bottom line: Michael Steele and Tom Kean are toast until Bush can inch his approval back up above 40%, something he hasn't consistently been able to do since late 2004 / early 2005. And Santorum and Talent look very bad with numbers like this. Stabenow, Cantwell, and Bill Nelson, all incumbents in "second-tier" or "tilts Democratic" races, can probably take heart in these numbers.
Posted by Nathaniel at 07:42 PM | Comments (25)
March 14, 2006
Headlines
Fancy Ford is another ridiculous NRSC smear website. The DSCC countered with a nearly identical site, Very Fancy Frist.
The Harris campaign is in freefall. Is she dropping out? Or just very badly damaged? We'll know more by the end of the week. Read about it here, here and here.
Michelman has decided not to run for Senate in Pennsylvania. Good.
GOP Polling firm Strategic Vision has a new poll of the New Jersey Senate race showing Kean defeating Menendez 32% to 30%. Until the number of undecideds drop significantly, close polls like this tell us very little.
The Kennedy campaign is attacking Klobuchar for advertising on Daily Kos.
Ned Lamont officially entered the Connecticut Senate race today.
Finally, I'm going on vacation for a week, so I won't be posting much, if at all. Nathaniel will still be posting this week though.
Posted by Max at 12:09 AM | Comments (6)
March 09, 2006
Headlines
LamontBlog is a great new site covering the Connecticut Senate race.
Jon Tester diaries on Kos that "It's Time for Conrad Burns to Resign".
If you haven't read the Vanity Fair article about Abramoff, do so now.
Abramoff on Burns:
Every appropriation we wanted [from Burns's committee] we got. Our staffs were as close as they could be. They practically used Signatures as their cafeteria. I mean, it's a little difficult for him to run from that record.
Good News! Harris declares that she's not dropping out of the Senate race.
Ben Nelson starts a new ad campaign in Nebraska.
Two Nelson campaign ads will grab a share of the spotlight from the Republican primary battle, portraying the Democratic incumbent as a senator who has been an advocate for Nebraska and stood strong on national security.“As our senator, Ben has stood up for our troops, won drought relief, millions for our schools and hospitals, and tax cuts for Nebraska’s working families,” the 60-second ad proclaims.
With an image of President Bush flashing on the TV screen, the 30-second commercial states: “Ben Nelson stood with the president when America was attacked and has always backed our troops.”
The campaign reminds voters “how Ben has fought for Nebraska in Washington,” said Paul Johnson, the senator’s campaign director.
The NY GOP's newest candidate to challenge Hillary, K.T. McFarland, is already making amateur mistakes and breaking campaign finance rules.
The election filings of Sen. Hillary Clinton's latest opponent certainly aren't par for the course, revealing a political novice claiming golf outings as campaign costs, in apparent violation of the law.
James Webb officially entered the Virginia Senate race on Tuesday.
More on the Virginia Senate race from the Washington Post:
So all of a sudden, Virginia feels as if it has a Senate race.It's an odd one, to be sure. Republican Sen. George Allen so far has gotten more attention for his presidential aspirations than his reelection campaign. One Democrat running to replace him is a high-tech lobbyist who has little name recognition but money to spend, and the other Democrat's political credentials in the Old Dominion include endorsing Allen six years ago.
The two Democrats, former Information Technology Association of America head Harris Miller and James Webb, a best-selling author and Reagan administration secretary of the Navy, will meet in what appears to be an unprecedented, three-month lightning round of a primary. By June 14, the party should have its man, and Democrats are hoping that, at the least, they can force Allen to spend more time in Danville than Des Moines.
Also, I just saw James Webb on the Colbert Report tonight. He had a few good lines.
Posted by Max at 02:09 AM
March 08, 2006
Headlines
Midterm exams continue, so I only have headlines today.
First, the Southern Dem diaries on Daily Kos about an NRSC fundraising mailing and survey that intimidates recipients. Read this.
In Ohio, DeWine is having some trouble with the state GOP:
Things have still gotten a bit bumpy for Republican Sen. Mike DeWine across pockets of rural Ohio as he campaigns for reelection.Two county GOP organizations have voted not to formally endorse the senator, and another has agreed his unknown opponent is equally qualified for the job.
Bill Pierce, a conservative math teacher and engineer who hopes to rise from political obscurity, tied with DeWine in Preble County last Thursday, which means the county executive committee there has officially chosen not to support the sitting senator. Preble County is on the Indiana line west of Dayton and might best be described as solid Midwestern farm country.
Earlier, Pierce picked up the county endorsement in Knox County, and he was rated ''highly qualified" by the Clermont County GOP. In Clermont, Pierce actually received more votes than DeWine and fell just a few short of the number needed for a full endorsement.
Liddy Dole admits that the Republicans are having problems and that this is going to be a painful election cycle for the NRSC.
Rick Santorum's campaign has launched a new website trashing Bob Casey for campaigning too much and not being in the Treasurer's office enough.
Hillary Clinton has a new challenger in liberal Republican K.T. McFarland. From the New York Daily News:
That sets up a GOP primary race against ex-Yonkers Mayor John Spencer, a conservative who calls McFarland a pro-choice elitist liberal. "I don't know what this woman is thinking, I really don't," he said, saying she'll divide the party and ultimately help Clinton (D-N.Y.). In her first nationally televised interview yesterday, McFarland told Chris Matthews on "Hardball" that she would never have voted with other Republicans to impeach former President Bill Clinton in 1998 if she were in the Senate then. She also said that efforts to label Hillary Clinton as an "angry woman" were "just nonsense."
...
Spencer is backed by the Conservative Party, without which no Republican has won statewide office since 1974. Gov. Pataki is widely seen as behind McFarland. New York's top Republican has been cool to Spencer because of apparent past friction, said political strategist George Arzt, adding, "It's part payback."
Did you know that Jim Talent used to be a lobbyist?
Soon after taking office in 2003, Sen. Jim Talent co-sponsored a health care bill that he said would help small businesses with the sharply rising costs of insurance for their employees.The measure had been a longtime priority for the Missouri Republican, stretching back to his days in the House, and a hot issue in his election campaign.
But the bill was also at the top of the agenda for one of Talent's former lobbying clients - the National Federation of Independent Business, a powerful small-business advocacy group. The group had paid Talent's firm $60,000 for lobbying and strategic advice after his failed gubernatorial bid in 2000.
No one has accused Talent of doing the federation's bidding. His years-long promotion of the health care legislation and his wonkish interest in its every detail make it evident that he sees it as good public policy, not as a boon to a private interest group.
But his work on the matter highlights a delicate dance that Talent has tapped since winning election four years ago after a brief but lucrative stint as a Washington lobbyist. And it points up the unusual path Talent took to the Senate, which involved a trip through the revolving door from public office to the lobbying business - and back again.
More from St. Louis Today on the Missouri Senate race and the Democrat's prospects in other Missouri races.
Posted by Max at 03:07 AM | Comments (6)
March 07, 2006
Quick Post
Midterm exams are fun. I only have time for a quick post today, but there's tons of news.
The NYT has an article about the Republican Party's year of failure in challenging Clinton.
The NYT also writes about out likely pickup opportunity in Pennsylvania:
Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, the third-ranking Republican in the Senate leadership, sums up his race for re-election this year with a paradoxical pride: "The other side of the aisle wants to beat me more than anything you can possibly imagine," he told the Greater Lehigh Valley Auto Dealers Association not long ago.Mr. Santorum is almost certainly right. No other race in the nation has so focused the Democratic Party's energy, resources or raw hunger to return to power on Capitol Hill. No other race so captures the Republican Party's vulnerabilities this year, with some public opinion polls consistently showing Mr. Santorum trailing his Democratic opponent, State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr.
And a new poll confirms Casey's lead: Casey: 49%, Santorum: 37%
A study of Montana’s two senators — Democrat Max Baucus and Republican Conrad Burns — shows that while both lawmakers have lost staff to lobbying jobs and accepted lobbyist donations, only Burns has hired lobbyists for such key positions as legislative director and campaign chairman. He has also started a nonprofit group with lobbyists.While such practices are perfectly legal, their ethical implications have come under increasing scrutiny in the wake of the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal.
Ned Lamont met with major CT political consultant Rick Blain:
It was D'Amore who helped Lowell P. Weicker try to open up state party primaries in the 1980s. He was alongside Weicker when Lieberman swiped Weicker's U.S. Senate seat with a bare-knuckled sneak attack from the right. Then he helped steer Weicker to a historic third-party grab of the governor's mansion in 1990, and served as Gov. Weicker's chief of staff.These days D'Amore has settled into a role befitting Claude Rains' Captain Louis Renault - lobbying and consulting at a firm housed at the airport: Doyle, D'Amore & Balducci. His job doesn't entail working for idealistic clients. But he's still eager, if the right opportunity arrives, to slip to the barricades of a noble quest.A quest, perhaps, like the one Ned Lamont arrived at D'Amore's office to discuss.
Getting D'Amore on the campaign would be a huge step for Lamont. Read the rest of the article for the laundry list of reasons why we need to get rid of Lieberman.
And finally, bad news out of Tennessee. Ford is trailing in the new Rasmussen poll:
Ed Bryant (R) 45%
Harold Ford (D) 36%Van Hilleary (R) 43%
Harold Ford (D) 35%Bob Corker (R) 39%
Harold Ford (D) 35%
Posted by Max at 01:51 AM | Comments (21)
February 18, 2006
SUSA polls approval ratings again
These are the numbers for the Senators in competitive races:
Bill Nelson, D-Florida: 53% approve, 29% disapprove
Jim Talent, R-Missouri: 50% approve, 38% disapprove
Conrad Burns, R-Montana: 42% approve, 51% disapprove
Mike DeWine, R-Ohio: 47% approve, 41% disapprove
Rick Santorum, R-Pennsylvania: 44% approve, 46% disapprove
Lincoln Chafee, R-Rhode Island: 53% approve, 38% disapprove
Maria Cantwell, D-Washington: 53% approve, 34% disapprove
Montana Democrats have apparently been quite successful in their effort to hammer a negative image of Burns into the voters' minds. Burns is now the most unpopular Senator in the country. Amazing, since just last summer his approval was 60%. Obviously, the Democrats worked hard to turn that around. Santorum's not so popular either, with 2% more disapproving than approving. And DeWine's reviews are pretty mixed, 47% positive to 41% negative. It is odd that popular Senators like Bill Nelson and Lincoln Chafee remain in competitive races, but they do.
And no, no numbers for Menendez. THAT will be interesting.
Posted by Nathaniel at 11:42 PM | Comments (9)
February 16, 2006
Charlie Cook: Do We Really Want a Majority?
From the Cook Political Report:
Political parties always try hard to win as many races as possible in each election. What might be in their best interest is sometimes a different story. So the question arises: Do Democrats really want to win majorities in the Senate and the House in 2006?As ridiculous as that question may sound, consider the following: Let's say Democrats are able to defeat Republican Sens. Conrad Burns in Montana, Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island, Mike DeWine in Ohio, Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania, and Jim Talent in Missouri, plus win the Senate seat being vacated by Bill Frist of Tennessee, plus hold on to every one of their own seats, including the most problematic -- an open seat in Minnesota and Maria Cantwell's seat in Washington. Those successes would give the Democrats the barest, 51-vote majority and, along with it, the power to investigate and subpoena. But they could do very little else, particularly with President Bush in the White House.
...
The worst situation for any party in a legislative chamber is to have the responsibility to govern without the power to do so. If Democrats gain a majority in each chamber, they'll find themselves sharing blame with President Bush.When voters are upset and when one party controls the White House, the Senate, and the House, fingers can point in only one direction. If Democrats gain a chamber, some of the air will start leaking from that "time for a change" balloon, and it would be awfully hard to reinflate.
On the other hand, if Democrats go into 2008 just a few seats shy of a Senate majority, their chances of scoring a meaningful win in that chamber, as well as capturing the White House, would be substantial. (In 2008, 21 Republican Senate seats, but just 12 Democratic ones, will be on the line.)
First, I didn't realize what a great advantage Democrats will have in 2008, with only 12 Dem seats up compared to 21 Republican seats.
Second, I agree with Cook that there are disadvantages to having a one seat Senate majority. However, he overlooks five major advantages.
1) Taking back the Senate will demonstrate to the public (and the media), that the Democratic party is not in disarray and that we have an effective message and mainstream positions. This is a crucial media narrative for 2008.
2) A one seat majority offers us a little insurance in case Justice Stevens (or any other Justice) dies or retires. A united Democratic majority might be able to force Bush to nominate someone a little more moderate than he would otherwise. We could also force the administration into releasing more information (such as all those crates of papers we wanted on Roberts and Alito), by preventing the nomination from reaching the floor until we get the information we need. Also, we'll have more success rejecting other ultra-conservative judicial nominees.
3) We won't be able to defeat all Republican legislation, but we'll be able to fight some of it. And with Harry Reid controlling the calendar and agenda, we'll have a much better chance getting some of our legislation through.
4) Cook seems to dismiss the power to investigate and subpoena, but with the Bush administration, we need more investigation. Wouldn't you prefer seeing Judiciary Committee Chair Leahy require AG Gonzales to swear in when he testifies, compared to the farce that Specter chairs?
5) With six more Senators, we will be in a better position to filibuster judicial nominations and GOP legislation supported by conservative Democrats. A Democratic majority will also end any threat of the nuclear option.
We can't afford to wait to take back the Senate until 2008. This country can't afford it. Why else do we need a Democrat majority in the Senate in 2006?
Posted by Max at 01:42 AM | Comments (9)
February 05, 2006
Senate 2006 analysis
Here it is, at long last. My first analysis since December. Races are ranked by likelihood of turnover.
1. Pennsylvania - Rick Santorum (R) first elected in 1994
Primary: May 16
Cash-on-Hand: Santorum (R) $7.759 million, Casey (D) $3.443 million
The polls favor State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. by a lot, but money favors incumbent Santorum. Santorum's approval is stagnant, and Casey continues to have anywhere from a 10- to 15-point lead. But Santorum is a superior campaigner, fundraiser, and politician. This will probably end up very close in the end, especially if liberals don't turn out strongly enough for Casey, whose conservative social stances may hurt him with party faithful. But that could well be cancelled out by a significant chunk of conservatives crossing over for Casey. In the end, a tough race for either man, but with Casey still enjoying the edge.
2. Ohio - Mike DeWine (R) first elected in 1994
Primary: May 2
Cash-on-Hand: DeWine (R) $4.291 million, Brown (D) $2.371 million
Even though Rep. Sherrod Brown only entered the race in the middle of the fourth quarter, he has a very decent warchest already. He is within a few points of DeWine in the polls, just barely outside of a statistical tie. And the primary is early enough that, if he defeats Major Paul Hackett as expected, there is plenty of time to heal primary wounds before the election. DeWine will surely use the "too liberal for Ohio" line again and again, but with a good chance of Rep. Ted Strickland grabbing the governor's mansion for the Democrats, it may not matter. A toss-up.
3. New Jersey - Bob Menendez (D) appointed in 2006
Primary: June 6
Cash-on-Hand: Menendez (D) $4.163 million, Kean (R) $767,935
This is, to an extent, a reverse of Pennsylvania, except that the financial gap between incumbent and challenger is much bigger and the polls don't really favor either one. Menendez has a media image as being tied closely to the "North Jersey machine", which of course is only partially true. And many New Jerseyans are nostalgic for the Kean name, remembering State Sen. Tom Kean Jr.'s father, a beloved moderate who was Governor from 1981 to 1989. But Kean Jr. is largely untested, since he has only been an elected official for four years. Menendez, meanwhile, has been a heavyweight in Jersey politics for many years, and is known as a rabid campaigner and one of the best fundraisers in American politics. So in the end I think Menendez is slightly favored, but it's not going to be easy.
4. Missouri - Jim Talent (R) first elected in 2002 special election
Primary: August 8
Cash-on-Hand: Talent (R) $4.660 million, McCaskill (D) $1.267 million
State Auditor Claire McCaskill's biggest liability is the big money gap. Talent has a very strong warchest. But she has everything else going in the right direction: huge unpopularity for President Bush and Governor Blunt in the state, tied polls (even showing McCaskill with a small lead), and DSCC backing. This will be a very close race, as usual in Missouri statewide contests. It will come down to the wire, and McCaskill can pull the upset if she can keep political conditions fairly stable over the next 9 months.
5. Minnesota - Mark Dayton (D) retiring after 1 term
Primary: September 12
Cash-on-Hand: Kennedy (R) $2.661 million, Klobuchar (D) $1.739 million
Rep. Mark Kennedy has the fundraising edge, but Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar has the party momentum. Every special election for the Minnesota state legislature in 2005 went Democratic, including two previously-Republican seats. All the signs point to a bluer Minnesota in 2006, including a very possible Democratic takeover of the State House and even a possible ousting of fairly popular Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who is tied in the polls with his likely DFL opponent. Klobuchar maintains a very narrow poll lead over Kennedy, and by all accounts she is a very strong speaker. So she has the slight edge. But not by a lot, and with enough NRSC dollars Kennedy could probably pull it off.
6. Tennessee - Bill Frist (R) retiring after 2 terms
Primary: August 3
Cash-on-Hand: Corker (R) $3.825 million, Ford (D) $1.863 million, Hilleary (R) $1.013 million
Rep. Harold Ford Jr. is a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination, while the GOP primary is a spirited three-way fight between former Reps. Van Hilleary and Ed Bryant, and Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker. Corker has the money, Hilleary has the name recognition, and Bryant has the conservative backing. Polls show a statistical tie, very slightly favoring the Republicans.
7. Maryland - Paul Sarbanes (D) retiring after 5 terms
Primary: September 12
Cash-on-Hand: Cardin (D) $2.168 million, Steele (R) $786,605, Mfume (D) $125,186
I don't buy last month's Rasmussen poll showing Lt. Gov. Michael Steele in the lead. Every other poll for almost a year now has shown Rep. Ben Cardin with a narrow edge. Obviously, Cardin's money situation is quite respectable. Steele's will be with time, as he has the GOP machine enthusiastically behind him. And former Rep. Kweisi Mfume is the underdog. While Cardin looks to be the favorite of a crowded Democratic field, if black turnout is high enough Mfume could pull the upset, making the seat much more vulnerable to a Steele pickup. Watch this one carefully, especially to see the effects of the Democratic primary.
8. Montana - Conrad Burns (R) first elected in 1988
Primary: June 6
Cash-on-Hand: Burns (R) $3.347 million, Morrison (D) $752,847, Tester (D) $166,852
The Democratic primary is the first milestone to watch. State Auditor John Morrison has the name recognition, State Sen. Jon Tester has the grassroots support. Neither has very good money standing, as you can see. But Burns is getting very unpopular, and his woes are the subject of frequent news in Montana. This one should get closer and closer as the election approaches.
9. Rhode Island - Lincoln Chafee (R) appointed in 1999
Primary: September 12
Cash-on-Hand: Chafee (R) $1.760 million, Whitehouse (D) $1.559 million, Laffey (R) $830,963
Chafee has been doing the smart thing lately, moving more and more to the left in anticipation of a tough reelection against former State Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse, who is pretty much tied with the incumbent in cash. But this is a delicate balancing act, as Chafee is facing a divisive Republican primary against Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey, a Club for Growth favorite with conservative creds. Chafee will defeat Laffey, but will the dust-up cause conservatives to stay home, therefore delivering Whitehouse the election?
Less likely to turn over: 10. Michigan, 11. Washington, 12. Florida, 13. Arizona, 14. Nebraska, 15. West Virginia, 16. Nevada; but note that Nevada will probably shoot to the top 10 if Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman (D) chooses to run.
Posted by Nathaniel at 11:36 AM | Comments (36)
February 03, 2006
Chuck Todd's Senate Rankings
Read his newest rankings at the National Journal. This initial rankings (PA, RI, MO, MN) are pretty expected. Some interesting comments:
8. OHIO (DeWine-R) Last Ranking: 7
Mike DeWine We're not moving this race up any higher yet because we can't figure out just exactly what DeWine's fireable offense might be. If this race turns out the way Dems believe it will (i.e., the fireable offense is his party I.D.), then it won't matter who wins the primary -- the more well-funded Brown or the always quotable Hackett.10. MICHIGAN (Stabenow-D) Last Ranking: 10
Debbie Stabenow We buy into a sleeper race every cycle. This year, we're starting to buy into Michigan. Right now, everything looks good for Stabenow but Mike Bouchard could end up being trouble for her. Sure, he's got a primary, but if he gets through it, he's going to have an entire ground game paid for by multimillionaire GOV candidate Dick DeVos. It's what's missing for a McGavick, for instance: multi-race help in a swing-ish state.
11. TENNESSEE (Open-R) Bill Frist is retiring Last Ranking: 13
Another month and another slew of bad articles with the name "Ford" in it. It's interesting, in this season of "juniors" all over Senate ballots (Bob Casey, Tom Kean, etc.), the only "junior" who asks that he be referred to as "junior" in the media is Harold. Republicans clearly believe that moderates in their party will never vote for a Ford; it's the only explanation for why there hasn't been more attempts to shrink the GOP field.12. ARIZONA (Kyl-R) Last Ranking: 9
Despite poll numbers that on paper look good, Kyl engages Jim Pederson a lot. This does two things for us: makes us question those poll numbers and has us convinced that Kyl's both nervous and engaged. For Republicans, it could be worse. They could have an incumbent in denial.21. NEW MEXICO (Bingaman-D) Last Ranking: 21
This contest continues to rank as the race Republicans overlooked the most. If they had put half the effort into going after Bingaman as they did Bill Nelson or even Kent Conrad, they'd have another seat in play.
Read the rest for a good summary of the key races.
Posted by Max at 06:18 PM | Comments (10)
Headlines
Some news I've missed over the past couple of days:
James Webb won't challenge George Allen in Virginia.
Clinton is invincible. More here.
Senate Democrats Ahead Of GOP in Fundraising
The major Senate Democratic fundraising committee has pulled millions of dollars ahead of its Republican counterpart despite the solid GOP Senate majority and the fundraising advantages of incumbency.The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, chaired by Sen. Charles E. Schumer (N.Y.), reported collecting $44 million in 2005, nearly $10 million more than the $35.5 million raised by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, chaired by Sen. Elizabeth Dole (N.C.).
More important, the Democratic committee ended the year with a cash balance of $25 million available for use in the 2006 elections, compared with the Senate Republicans' $10.5 million cash on hand.
The money is significant but by no means guarantees success on Election Day. For the entire 2003-2004 election cycle, the DSCC outraised the NRSC $88.7 million to $79 million, but it still lost four seats.
If current trends continue, the Democratic financial advantage will be larger in the 2005-2006 cycle and will mark a complete reversal from years when the NRSC used to overwhelm the DSCC. In both the 1999-2000 and 2001-2002 cycles, the GOP beat the Democrats by $12 million.
Posted by Max at 06:01 PM | Comments (3)
January 29, 2006
SUSA Approval Ratings
Survey USA released its latest approval ratings poll of all 100 Senators. Among the four Senators with negative net approval are Conrad Burns with 42 % approval to 51% disapproval, and Rick Santorum with 44% approval to 46% disapproval.
Posted by Max at 09:41 PM
January 23, 2006
Today's Must Read
If you haven't read it already, go read Chris Bower's January Senate Forecast at MyDD right now. Below are a few highlights, but Chris goes through the different competitive races, and considers what we would need to a Democratic landslide.
If one accepts this basic thesis*, and I clearly accept it, the key for a Democratic Senatorial landslide in 2006 is going to be:* At least six very strong Democratic challenges to Republican held seats.
* A numeric Democratic advantage of at least three when it comes to very strong challenges to Senate seats held by the other party.Right now, Democrats have four "very strong" challenges to Republican held seats, while Republicans have two (though most likely one) "very strong" challenges to Democratic held seats. This means that right now Democrats do not meet either criteria for a Senate landslide.
*Charlie Cook's thesis that the close Senate races won't break evenly between the two parties, but one party will win all (or almost all) of them.
While it is not reasonable to forecast a landslide at this point, there still remains real hope on the horizon for Democrats. Only one of the already listed seats is in a "safe red" state (Montana), and the DSCC actually has a large monetary edge over the NRSC (22.4M to 9.1M cash on hand). Further, among the seats already listed, Democrats are attacking four Republican incumbents (Burns, DeWine, Santorum and Talent), while Republicans are attacking no Democratic incumbents (Menendez really doesn't count). All of this will stretch Republican resources much thinner than they were stretched in 2004.More hope comes form races that can no longer be realistically seen as competitive. Over the past month, while Mississippi has dropped of the board for Democrats, it has become obvious that Vermont and Florida can no longer be considered campaigns where Republicans have a realistic shot of winning. This further reduces the universe of seats that Republicans can potentially make competitive.
Counting the six seats already listed, overall, Democrats have nine challenges still on the board, while Republicans have only seven.
Here's the most important part:
The goal from now until at least Labor Day, and possibly until the beginning of October, will not be to rack up as many Casey vs. Santorum-esque "likely pickups." Such races are nice, but they will actually have less impact on the state of the overall Senate picture as the competitive, "toss-up" races. This is not only because at this point it would take a major scandal to create anymore of these races, but also because the outcome of such races seem to be more or less a foregone conclusion at this point. Come October, campaigns such as Casey vs. Santorum will not be the primary focus of resources for either national party in October. Instead, the battle for the Senate will take place in close, competitive, "toss-up" campaigns where both parties will focus their resources. If there is going to be a large national Senate swing in favor of one party or the other, as there was for Democrats in 2000 and as there was for Republicans in 2004, it will be because one party is able to stretch the defensives of their opponent extremely thin.
Posted by Max at 10:57 PM | Comments (8)
January 09, 2006
2006 Senate Poll Watch
As the elections approach, we'll be assembling a comprehensive list of all of the Senate election polls (at least of the competitive races). Most of the polls are from Rasmussen right now, but as more polling firms start to poll these races regularly, we'll add those too. The list is currently missing a few important races, including Nevada and Rhode Island, where there hasn't been any polling in a few months. If we're missing a poll on our list, please post a link to it in the comments, and we'll add it.
| Arizona * Connecticut * Florida * Maryland * Michigan * Minnesota * Missouri * Montana * Nebraska * New Jersey |
| North Dakota * Ohio * Pennsylvania * Rhode Island * Tennessee * Texas * Vermont * Virginia * Washington * West Virginia * Wisconsin |
| Arizona | ||||
| *Kyl (R) | 55% | Dec-05 | AZ Daily Star | MoE: 4.2% |
| Pederson (D) | 26% | |||
| ******** | ||||
| *Kyl (R) | 50% | Dec-05 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| Pederson (D) | 30% | |||
| Connecticut | ||||
| *Lieberman (D) | 47% | Jan-06 | Rasmussen | MoE: 2.7% |
| Weicker (I) | 25% | |||
| Republican (R) | 16% | |||
| ******** | ||||
| *Lieberman (D) | 65% | Jan-06 | Quinnipiac | MoE: 2.7% |
| Weicker (I) | 21% | |||
| Florida | ||||
| *Nelson (D) | 49% | Feb-06 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| Harris (R) | 40% | |||
| ******** | ||||
| *Nelson (D) | 54% | Jan-06 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.0% |
| Harris (R) | 31% | |||
| Maryland | ||||
| Cardin (D) | 40% | Jan-06 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| Steele (R) | 45% | |||
| Steele (R) | 45% | |||
| Mfume (D) | 38% | |||
| ******** | ||||
| Cardin (D) | 49% | Nov-05 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| Steele (R) | 41% | |||
| Steele (R) | 45% | |||
| Mfume (D) | 44% | |||
| Michigan | ||||
| *Stabenow (D) | 54% | Feb-06 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| Bouchard (R) | 33% | |||
| *Stabenow (D) | 53% | |||
| Butler (R) | 32% | |||
| *Stabenow (D) | 53% | |||
| Zandstra (R) | 33% | |||
| ******** | ||||
| *Stabenow (D) | 56% | Jan-06 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| Bouchard (R) | 31% | |||
| *Stabenow (D) | 54% | |||
| Butler (R) | 34% | |||
| *Stabenow (D) | 58% | |||
| Zandstra (R) | 30% | |||
| ******** | ||||
| *Stabenow (D) | 47% | Dec-05 | Strategic Vision | MoE: 3.0% |
| Bouchard (R) | 35% | |||
| *Stabenow (D) | 48% | |||
| Butler (R) | 26% | |||
| *Stabenow (D) | 48% | |||
| Zandstra (R) | 24% | |||
| Primary: | ||||
| Bouchard (R) | 27% | |||
| Zandstra (R) | 18% | |||
| Butler (R) | 14% | |||
| ******** | ||||
| *Stabenow (D) | 49% | Dec-05 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| Bouchard (R) | 33% | |||
| *Stabenow (D) | 52% | |||
| Butler (R) | 33% | |||
| *Stabenow (D) | 51% | |||
| Zandstra (R) | 31% | |||
| Minnesota | ||||
| Klobuchar (D) | 45% | Feb-06 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| Kennedy (R) | 42% | |||
| Kennedy (R) | 43% | |||
| Bell (D) | 30% | |||
| ******** | ||||
| Klobuchar (D) | 43% | Jan-06 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| Kennedy (R) | 42% | |||
| Kennedy (R) | 41% | |||
| Bell (D) | 36% | |||
| ******** | ||||
| Klobuchar (D) | 48% | Dec-05 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| Kennedy (R) | 41% | |||
| Wetterling (D) | 47% | |||
| Kennedy (R) | 43% | |||
| Kennedy (R) | 45% | |||
| Bell (D) | 35% | |||
| Kennedy (R) | 43% | |||
| Ciresi (D) | 40% | |||
| Missouri | ||||
| *Talent (R) | 46% | Feb-06 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| McCaskill (D) | 41% | |||
| ******** | ||||
| McCaskill (D) | 47% | Jan-06 | Research 2000 | MoE: 3.5% |
| *Talent (R) | 44% | |||
| ******** | ||||
| McCaskill (D) | 46% | Jan-06 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| *Talent (R) | 43% | |||
| Montana | ||||
| Morrison (D) | 50% | Feb-06 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| *Burns (R) | 43% | |||
| *Burns (R) | 46% | |||
| Tester (D) | 46% | |||
| ******** | ||||
| *Burns (R) | 46% | Jan-06 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| Morrison (D) | 43% | |||
| *Burns (R) | 45% | |||
| Tester (D) | 45% | |||
| ******** | ||||
| *Burns (R) | 46% | Dec-05 | Mason-Dixon | MoE: 4.0% |
| Morrison (D) | 40% | |||
| *Burns (R) | 49% | |||
| Tester (D) | 35% | |||
| Nebraska | ||||
| *Nelson (D) | 52% | Nov-05 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| Ricketts (R) | 29% | |||
| *Nelson (D) | 57% | |||
| Kramer (R) | 35% | |||
| New Jersey | ||||
| Kean (R) | 33% | Feb-06 | Strategic Vision | MoE: 3.0% |
| Menendez (D) | 28% | |||
| ******** | ||||
| Kean (R) | 42% | Jan-06 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| Menendez (D) | 35% | |||
| ******** | ||||
| Menendez (D) | 44% | Jan-06 | Quinnipiac | MoE: 3.2% |
| Kean (R) | 38% | |||
| ******** | ||||
| Kean (R) | 36% | Jan-06 | Fairleigh-Dickinson | MoE: 4.0% |
| Menendez (D) | 25% | |||
| ******** | ||||
| Menendez (D) | 44% | Dec-05 | Quinnipiac | MoE: 3.7% |
| Kean (R) | 38% | |||
| North Dakota | ||||
| *Conrad (D) | 53% | Jan-06 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| Stenehjem (R) | 40% | |||
| *Conrad (D) | 57% | |||
| Cramer (R) | 35% | |||
| *Conrad (D) | 59% | |||
| Warford (R) | 31% | |||
| Ohio | ||||
| *DeWine (R) | 45% | Jan-06 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| Brown (D) | 40% | |||
| *DeWine (R) | 43% | |||
| Hackett (D) | 39% | |||
| Pennsylvania | ||||
| Casey (D) | 51% | Feb-06 | Quinnipiac University | MoE: 2.4% |
| *Santorum (R) | 36% | |||
| ******** | ||||
| Casey (D) | 50% | Jan-06 | Strategic Vision | MoE: 3.0% |
| *Santorum (R) | 40% | |||
| ******** | ||||
| Casey (D) | 53% | Jan-06 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| *Santorum (R) | 38% | |||
| ******** | ||||
| Casey (D) | 50% | Dec-05 | Strategic Vision | MoE: 3.0% |
| *Santorum (R) | 39% | |||
| Rhode Island | ||||
| *Chafee (R) | 50% | Feb-06 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| Whitehouse (D) | 38% | |||
| *Chafee (R) | 47% | |||
| Brown (R) | 40% | |||
| Whitehouse (D) | 55% | |||
| Laffey (R) | 30% | |||
| Brown (D) | 54% | |||
| Laffey (R) | 30% | |||
| ******** | ||||
| *Chafee (R) | 40% | Feb-06 | Brown University | MoE: 3.5% |
| Whitehouse (D) | 34% | |||
| *Chafee (R) | 38% | |||
| Brown (R) | 36% | |||
| Whitehouse (D) | 44% | |||
| Laffey (R) | 29% | |||
| Brown (D) | 47% | |||
| Laffey (R) | 24% | |||
| Primary: | ||||
| Brown (D) | 31% | |||
| Whitehouse (D) | 25% | |||
| Tennessee | ||||
| Corker (R) | 42% | Jan-06 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| Ford (D) | 40% | |||
| Bryant (R) | 42% | |||
| Ford (D) | 40% | |||
| Hilleary (R) | 43% | |||
| Ford (D) | 37% | |||
| ******** | ||||
| Ford (D) | 42% | Dec-05 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| Corker (R) | 36% | |||
| Bryant (R) | 41% | |||
| Ford (D) | 38% | |||
| Hilleary (R) | 41% | |||
| Ford (D) | 39% | |||
| Texas | ||||
| *Hutchison (R) | 64% | Jan-06 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| Radnofsky (D) | 25% | |||
| Vermont | ||||
| Sanders (I) | 70% | Jan-06 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| Tarrant (R) | 25% | |||
| Sanders (I) | 70% | |||
| Parke (R) | 24% | |||
| Virginia | ||||
| *Allen (R) | 48% | Feb-06 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| Miller (D) | 35% | |||
| *Allen (R) | 49% | |||
| Webb (D) | 37% | |||
| ******** | ||||
| *Allen (R) | 57% | Jan-06 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| Miller (D) | 27% | |||
| Washington | ||||
| *Cantwell (D) | 48% | Feb-06 | Strategic Vision | MoE: 3% |
| McGavick (R) | 40% | |||
| ******** | ||||
| *Cantwell (D) | 50% | Feb-06 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| McGavick (R) | 36% | |||
| ******** | ||||
| *Cantwell (D) | 51% | Jan-06 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| McGavick (R) | 36% | |||
| West Virginia | ||||
| *Byrd (D) | 58% | Feb-06 | Rasmussen | MoE: 4.5% |
| Raese (R) | 32% | |||
| *Byrd (D) | 60% | |||
| Lewis (R) | 29% | |||
| *Byrd (D) | 61% | |||
| Lawhorn (R) | 28% | |||
| Wisconsin | ||||
| *Kohl (D) | 59% | Dec-05 | Strategic Vision | MoE: 4.5% |
| Lorge (R) | 29% |
* indicates incumbent. I am not counting Menendez as an incumbent, because he began serving in January, and will effectively be running for his first term.
Posted by Max at 11:27 PM | Comments (4)
January 03, 2006
NYT Senate Race Summary
From the New York Times:
In truth, Democratic hopes of winning back the House are somewhat remote. They have a better shot at capturing the Senate. A few races are worth tracking for early signs about how realistic these hopes are.Republicans hold 55 seats in the Senate, to 44 for Democrats, with 1 independent. Republicans have reason to worry about seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Montana and Missouri, and conceivably Tennessee and Arizona. If Senator Trent Lott of Mississippi does not run again, even that seat could be in play, strategists for both parties say.
But this is not an easy road for the Democrats. Not only would they have to win races in the South, hardly friendly territory, they would need to hold off potentially strong Republican challenges to Democratic seats in New Jersey, Minnesota and Maryland.
...
Start with Arizona and Tennessee, the toughest of the bunch. If Republican senators there start to falter, Democrats could indeed be poised to take back the Senate. In Arizona, Senator Jon Kyl, after winning a second term without Democratic opposition in 2000, faces a well-financed challenge from Jim Pederson, a former Democratic Party leader. In Tennessee, Senator Bill Frist's exit has set up a potential three-way Republican primary, while the Democratic candidate will be a well-known moderate Congressman, Harold E. Ford Jr.From there, look to Montana to see if Republican ethical problems might help Democrats this year. The state's Republican senator, Conrad Burns, had to return a $150,000 campaign contribution from Jack Abramoff, the indicted Washington lobbyist at the center of a Congressional corruption investigation, and Democrats are viewing him as increasingly vulnerable.
For one sign of whether the war in Iraq is playing to the Democrats advantage, look to Ohio, where Paul Hackett, an Iraq war veteran who lost a bid for Congress last year, is seeking the Democratic nomination to challenge Senator Mike DeWine, a Republican. Republicans are having all sorts of problems in Ohio this year.
On the other hand, if Democrats seem to be struggling to take out Republican incumbents in Rhode Island and Pennsylvania come the fall - both Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania and Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island seem particularly vulnerable right now - that will not bode well for the party.
Posted by Max at 12:32 AM | Comments (3)
January 02, 2006
New Year Roundup
Well, Happy New Year, everyone. It's 2006 now. Let the fun begin. I won't be posting my monthly analysis until the FEC fundraising numbers come out on January 15.
Primary season begins in just two months! For reference, here is the full primary calendar.
PRIMARIES
March 7: Texas
March 21: Illinois
May 2: Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio
May 9: Nebraska, West Virginia
May 16: Kentucky, Oregon, Pennsylvania
May 23: Arkansas, Idaho
June 6: Alabama, California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota
June 13: Maine, North Dakota, South Carolina, Virginia
June 27: Utah
July 18: Georgia
July 25: Oklahoma
August 1: Kansas
August 3: Tennessee
August 8: Colorado, Connecticut, Michigan, Missouri
August 15: Nevada
August 22: Alaska, Wyoming
September 5: Florida
September 12: Arizona, Delaware, Maryland, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Wisconsin
September 19: Massachusetts, Washington
September 23: Hawaii
ELECTION DAY: November 7
Note: There is no primary in Louisiana, which employs a runoff system instead. In this system, every candidate is on the Election Day ballot, and if nobody receives 50% of the vote, the top two vote-getters advance to a December runoff. An example of this was the Senate race of 2002, where incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu only received 46% on November 5 and had to face the runner-up, Republican Suzy Terrell, in a December runoff (which Landrieu won 52% to 48%).
Posted by Nathaniel at 10:18 AM
December 30, 2005
Schumer: DSCC Targeting Seven States
From the AP:
Schumer, the head of Senate Democrats' campaign efforts, said Tuesday he is focusing on seven states where he believes they can take GOP-held Senate seats in 2006: Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Montana, Tennessee, and Arizona."If the stars align right we could actually take back the Senate," Schumer said.
...
But one political observer said Schumer's list of seven target states in 2006 may not be as far-fetched as his detractors claim.Bruce Oppenheimer, a Vanderbilt University politics professor, said the conditions in Tennessee may be ripe for a Democratic win.
"People think this race would lean Republican, all other things being equal. But it's in play," said Oppenheimer. "For the Democrats, it's certainly doable."
If Trent Lott retires, Mississippi may be in play as well. While Olympia Snowe says she plans to run for re-election, rumors that she will retire persist. If she does, we have a really good chance of picking up that seat. Also, our open seats are looking safer, as Minnesota, Maryland and New Jersey all appear to be leaning our way right now.
Posted by Max at 02:57 PM | Comments (2)
December 28, 2005
Quick Vacation Post
I'm on vacation this week, so I'm not posting much. Some quick headlines:
Kyl leads Pederson 50% to 30% in a new Rasmussen poll. Its definitely a healthy lead, but Kyl should be well above 50%.
From the Billings Gazette:
If the election were held today, Montana voters favored Burns over Morrison by a 46 to 40 percent margin, with 14 percent undecided, the poll showed. In a Gazette State Poll conducted in May, Burns enjoyed a 49 to 34 percent lead over Morrison, with 17 percent undecided.
...
Burns leads the other top Democrat, state Senate President Jon Tester, by a 49 to 35 percent margin, with 16 percent undecided, in the December poll. The May poll showed Burns over Tester by a 50 to 26 percent margin, with 24 percent undecided.
DavidNYC has some good commentary on this poll at Swing State Project.
I forgot to mention Trent Lott's interview with the Sun Herald last week:
On running again:
That house was the first thing I ever had that was paid for. The hurricane certainly complicated my decision across the board. From a personal standpoint, I need a little more income. But the people I care most about, those on the Coast, are hurting and need help.There's been the implication that I can do more here for them than somebody else, but the truth is somebody else could do just as good. I don't know. My family and I will be discussing it over Christmas. Even my own family is divided.
My son is saying, "Get out, enjoy yourself." My daughter is telling me there is no way I can leave it. She's probably smarter than my son, but he knows how to enjoy life. My wife is a trouper, but she's had to sacrifice a lot and I think she's ready for me to go do something else.
Another consideration is that I am so disappointed with the administration's response to this disaster that I'm almost embarrassed.
I won't be complicating anybody's Christmas by making a decision (before the first of the year.)
On running for leadership:
If I come back, I might run for leadership. I might do it just to make everybody nervous. There are problems in here. We have sunken to a level that really bothers me. I've always tried to get the most things done for my people. The way to get the most done is being leader.
Posted by Max at 02:27 AM | Comments (1)
December 14, 2005
SUSA polls Senate approval
The December numbers from SUSA have come.
The ones up for reelection in 2006:
SENATOR: Approval
Olympia Snowe, Republican of Maine: 75%
Kent Conrad, Democrat of North Dakota: 70%
Trent Lott, Republican of Mississippi: 66%
Ben Nelson, Democrat of Nebraska: 66%
Robert Byrd, Democrat of West Virginia: 65%
Daniel Akaka, Democrat of Hawaii: 64%
Joe Lieberman, Democrat of Connecticut: 63%
Tom Carper, Democrat of Delaware: 63%
Hillary Clinton, Democrat of New York: 63%
Richard Lugar, Republican of Indiana: 62%
Ted Kennedy, Democrat of Massachusetts: 60%
Kay Bailey Hutchison, Republican of Texas: 60%
Craig Thomas, Republican of Wyoming: 60%
Jeff Bingaman, Democrat of New Mexico: 59%
Orrin Hatch, Republican of Utah: 59%
George Allen, Republican of Virginia: 59%
Herb Kohl, Democrat of Wisconsin: 57%
Maria Cantwell, Democrat of Washington: 55%
Lincoln Chafee, Republican of Rhode Island: 54%
Dianne Feinstein, Democrat of California: 52%
Jim Talent, Republican of Missouri: 51%
John Ensign, Republican of Nevada: 49% (33% disapprove)
Bill Nelson, Democrat of Florida: 48% (28% disapprove)
Debbie Stabenow, Democrat of Michigan: 48% (38% disapprove)
Mike DeWine, Republican of Ohio: 47% (42% disapprove)
Rick Santorum, Republican of Pennsylvania: 47% (43% disapprove)
Jon Kyl, Republican of Arizona: 46% (39% disapprove)
Conrad Burns, Republican of Montana: 45% (46% disapprove)
So of the Senators seeking reelection, the only ones with weak approvals are Burns (1% net DISapproval), Santorum (4% net approval), DeWine (5% net approval), and Kyl (7% net approval). Interestingly, much as Republicans tout Bill Nelson's 48% approval as weak, his disapproval is only 28%, indicating that many Floridians (24%) simply don't have a strong impression of him, and the 76% that do are overwhelmingly supportive.
Posted by Nathaniel at 12:44 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
December 13, 2005
NRSC Trying to Link Democrats to Abramoff
From The Hill:
The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is planning a public-relations offensive tying leading Democrats to lobbyist Jack Abramoff in an effort to neutralize accusations that Republicans have been embroiled in a “culture of corruption.”The campaign will zero in on Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.); Sens. Debbie Stabenow and Carl Levin, both Michigan Democrats; and the Democratic Senatorial Committee (DSCC), among others, for taking money from Abramoff’s former clients.
Read the rest for more corruption.
Fears of a rout of Republicans next year, members of both parties say, have metastasized in recent months, as White House officials and congressional Republicans have been ensnarled in a series of investigations, court hearings and, in some cases, bribery charges, including White House Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove and former vice president Chief of Staff I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (Tenn.), former Majority Leader Tom DeLay (Texas), former Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham (Calif.) and Rep. Bob Ney (Ohio).
...
In Florida, meanwhile, Rep. Katherine Harris (R) has been attacked for receiving $51,000 from two defense companies, MZM Inc. and ADCS Inc., associated with Cunningham, who resigned from Congress earlier this month after pleading guilty to bribery.
Posted by Max at 01:12 AM | TrackBack
NRSC Trying to Link Democrats to Abramoff
From The Hill:
The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is planning a public-relations offensive tying leading Democrats to lobbyist Jack Abramoff in an effort to neutralize accusations that Republicans have been embroiled in a “culture of corruption.”The campaign will zero in on Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.); Sens. Debbie Stabenow and Carl Levin, both Michigan Democrats; and the Democratic Senatorial Committee (DSCC), among others, for taking money from Abramoff’s former clients.
Read the rest for more corruption.
Posted by Max at 01:12 AM | TrackBack
December 08, 2005
Quick Update
Sorry for the lack of posts lately. Its finals time, so posting will be slow for the next 2 weeks or so.
The Boston Globe profiles Chafee.
Anti-War and Labor Activist to Challenge Clinton.
In an early sign of the importance of next year's contest for the United States Senate in New Jersey, national and state Republican leaders signaled their support Tuesday for State Senator Thomas H. Kean Jr., the namesake son of one of New Jersey's most popular former governors.United States Senator Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, the chairwoman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, flew here to pledge her "strong personal support" for Mr. Kean.
GOP Support Kean Jr. in New Jersey Senate Race.
Also, Menendez is almost certianly Corzine's choice to replace him in the Senate.
Posted by Max at 12:09 AM | TrackBack
December 02, 2005
Senate 2006 analysis, December 2005
I'm writing this month's update in a different format, with each race ranked by likelihood of turnover. This post analyzes only the seats I consider highly competitive at this time.
1. Pennsylvania
Incumbent: Rick Santorum (R) - elected in 1994
A November poll by Rasmussen showed Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. trouncing Santorum 54% to 34%. Other polls, including the GOP polling firm Strategic Vision, have shown Casey above 50%. Santorum has got to hope for a major turnaround, or an anti-Democrat backlash, if he's going to even make this close. Granted, he has better campaigning and fundraising ability. But is that enough to turn around these kinds of numbers?
2. Ohio
Incumbent: Mike DeWine (R) - elected in 1994
A Rasmussen poll just released today showed DeWine in a statistical tie with both challengers. Rep. Sherrod Brown gets 41% to DeWine's 43%, and Major Paul Hackett gets 41% to DeWine's 42%. Those are troubling numbers for the Senator as he is a 2-term incumbent with somewhat higher name recognition than either Democrat. And the campaign has barely begun. Watch this turn into a bloody, dirty race. The Democratic primary in Ohio will be on May 2, and the Brown/Hackett battle is expected to be hard-fought and competitive. One of two things could happen: the primary could divide Democrats and leave them bloodied heading into the election, or it could energize them (as divisive GOP primaries did for Republican Senate candidates in 2004) and gear them up to defeat DeWine. Only time will tell. For now, DeWine may not be Rick Santorum, but he's in trouble.
3. Minnesota (OPEN)
Incumbent: Mark Dayton (D) - elected in 2000, retiring after 1 term
Minnesota will hold its sixth competitive Senate race in a row next year! Yes, ever since 1990 the Land of 10,000 Lakes has routinely seen closely-fought Senate contests. This time, the incumbent is retiring after a single term and both parties have well-known candidates. The Democrat will probably be Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar and the Republican will be Rep. Mark Kennedy. The contest should provide a classic showdown: the progressive woman from the city versus the conservative man from the exurbs. Klobuchar's primary base will be in the Twin Cities and in the Iron Range, both very Democratic areas, but both areas where turnout must be high for a Democrat to win statewide. Kennedy's base is the exurbs and rural areas outside of the Twin Cities, a fast-growing and increasingly GOP-friendly area. Polls show the contest too close to call, and it could go either way. The best news for Democrats is that President Bush's approval is quite weak in Minnesota; Republicans however tout the strength of their candidate and the potential vulnerabilities of Klobuchar. So nobody quite knows where this one is headed.
4. Missouri
Incumbent: Jim Talent (R) - elected in 2002 special election
Talent's approval is okay, but President Bush's and Gov. Blunt's are quite hideous. Missouri has been trending GOP for several years now, but it is still somewhat of a swing state, and Democrats have found a star recruit in State Auditor Claire McCaskill. Several polls have shown the race tied (a November Rasmussen poll had McCaskill at 47% and Talent at 45%). The only reason I have this below Ohio is that Talent's approval rating is somewhat better than DeWine's. Missourians have major buyer's remorse over picking Bush and Blunt in 2004, and Claire McCaskill is so far proving to be the best Senate candidate Democrats have had in this state since Mel Carnahan.
5. Rhode Island
Incumbent: Lincoln Chafee (R) - appointed in 1999
Recent developments in Ohio and Missouri have pushed those races above this one, but make no mistake, Chafee is still in some very hot water. New numbers indicate that he may have a tougher primary than expected against conservative Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey, who seems to be gaining ground with party-faithful in Rhode Island. And even if Chafee survives the Laffey challenge, he will face tough competition from former State Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse, the leading Democrat in the race. The primaries are late, September 12, so assuming Whitehouse has the nomination locked up (he does) he will have a lot of time next year to focus on raising money while Chafee struggles to keep his own party behind him.
6. Maryland (OPEN)
Incumbent: Paul Sarbanes (D) - elected in 1976, retiring after 5 terms
While the GOP nominee will almost certainly be Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, two Democrats, Rep. Ben Cardin and former NAACP President Kweisi Mfume, are duking it out for their party nod. Cardin has establishment support, Mfume has a base of liberal activists and especially the black community. Cardin has the edge, but not by a lot, and Steele is no pushover. Still, Maryland is a Democratic state that is very sour on Bush, and the obvious strategy for Cardin or Mfume will be to tie Steele to the President (which is pretty easy to do). It is worth noting that while the late September 12 primary date may hurt Democrats, they still have the edge to keep this seat. Cardin led Steele 49% to 41% in a Rasmussen poll last month, while Mfume was in a statistical tie: 44% to Steele's 45%.
7. New Jersey (VACANT)
Incumbent: Jon Corzine (D) - elected in 2000, elected Governor in 2005
Corzine was elected Governor on November 8, and as such he gets to appoint a replacement in the Senate. While we do know some of the candidates running, everybody is